Kentucky vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsLOU
- Q4 0:08LOUMaurice Burkley 7 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)52–21
- Q4 3:54UKLa'Vell Wright 41 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)52–14
- Q4 8:49LOUJosh Johnson 8 Yd pass from Evan Conley (James Turner Kick)45–14
- Q4 13:33UKKavosiey Smoke 13 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)45–7
- Q3 3:18UKChris Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)38–7
- Q3 9:28UKWill Levis 1 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:53UKWill Levis 5 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)24–7
- Q2 8:46UKMatt Ruffolo 43 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 1:18UKWill Levis 7 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:30LOUMalik Cunningham 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:22UKWill Levis 29 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassWill Levis 14/18, 149 YDS
- RushChris Rodriguez Jr. 16 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWan'Dale Robinson 9 REC, 97 YDS
- PassMalik Cunningham 12/20, 145 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJalen Mitchell 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecMarshon Ford 6 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:18UK +20%
Will Levis 7 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
- Q1 7:30LOU +18%
Malik Cunningham 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)
- Q1 12:22UK +18%
Will Levis 29 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
- Q2 1:53UK +14%
Will Levis 5 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)
- Q2 8:46UK +13%
Matt Ruffolo 43 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 1:59UK +6%
Will Levis pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Louisville?
Kentucky 52, Louisville 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 511 | Total yards | 352 |
| 149 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 362 | Rushing yards | 144 |
| 29 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/19 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-29 | Penalties | 3-24 |
| 35:04 | Possession | 24:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:46 UK field goal on 4th & 2 at LOU 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:08LOUMaurice Burkley 7 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)52–21
- Q4 3:54UKLa'Vell Wright 41 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)52–14
- Q4 8:49LOUJosh Johnson 8 Yd pass from Evan Conley (James Turner Kick)45–14
- Q4 13:33UKKavosiey Smoke 13 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)45–7
- Q3 3:18UKChris Rodriguez Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)38–7
- Q3 9:28UKWill Levis 1 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:53UKWill Levis 5 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)24–7
- Q2 8:46UKMatt Ruffolo 43 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 1:18UKWill Levis 7 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:30LOUMalik Cunningham 2 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:22UKWill Levis 29 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1688, UK Elo 1662 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #96 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →The series is level at 17–17 · Louisville has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.4 (#24) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#43) |
| +9 / -5 | offense / defense | +10 / +1 |
| 2.93 | points / drive | 2.79 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →