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Gridpex

CORE Ratings

Analysis

How good each team is per play, once you account for who they played and the situations they were in. Zero is an average team; higher is better. points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Built from 95,298 plays across 776 games.

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt
Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Offense against defense

Offense across, defense up. Best teams are top right. Both numbers are adjusted for who each team played, so a soft schedule does not flatter anyone.

-20+0+20-20-10+0+10+20CORE offense (points per 100 plays)← worsebetter →CORE defense (vs average)← worsebetter →
131 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = -0.21(r² = 0.05)

Where efficiency and the poll disagree

The gap between a team’s CORE rank and its AP rank. This is the column worth arguing about — it is where one of the two measures is about to be shown up.

#TeamCOREOffenseDefense
11–2Georgia+39.8+20.9#2-18.9#2
22–5Ohio State+33.7+22.9#1-10.8#16
32–6Alabama+30.5+14.9#11-15.6#4
42–6Michigan+30.2+14.9#10-15.3#5
53–8LSU+26.9+16.9#6-10.0#17
65–10Tennessee+24.1+20.1#4-4.0#43
75–14Florida State+22.3+16.3#7-6.0#30
86–17Texas+20.2+11.3#14-8.8#21
96–22James Madison+19.1+2.3#55-16.8#3
107–24Penn State+17.7+6.0#35-11.7#14
117–26TCU+17.1+11.3#15-5.9#32
127–28Utah+16.5+7.3#27-9.3#20
138–28Kansas State+16.5+8.6#21-7.9#23
148–28Pittsburgh+16.4+1.3#60-15.0#6
158–35Oregon+15.1+15.8#8+0.7#69
168–35Oregon State+15.1+3.5#44-11.6#15
178–36Mississippi State+14.5+2.7#49-11.8#13
189–36Clemson+14.3+2.0#56-12.2#11
199–39Illinois+14.1+1.8#58-12.3#10
209–39Louisville+13.6+3.9#43-9.6#18
2110–39UCLA+13.2+15.0#9+1.8#75
2210–39Boise State+12.8+6.8#30-6.1#29
2310–39Tulane+12.7+8.0#26-4.7#38
2411–40USC+12.1+20.1#3+8.1#110
2511–41Ole Miss+12.0+11.2#16-0.8#58
2612–46Auburn+11.2+3.5#45-7.6#25
2714–44Maryland+11.0+4.4#40-6.6#27
2813–52Wisconsin+10.6-1.5#67-12.0#12
2915–52Oklahoma+10.3+10.7#17+0.4#67
3015–52Washington+10.3+14.0#12+3.7#83
3115–53Iowa+10.1-10.7#120-20.8#1
3215–54Kentucky+10.1-2.7#77-12.8#8
3315–53Kansas+10.1+17.0#5+6.9#106
3415–58Air Force+9.4+5.5#36-3.9#44
3517–58UTSA+9.0+8.4#22-0.7#59
3618–59UAB+8.8+8.3#25-0.5#61
3718–59Florida+8.7+8.3#23-0.3#62
3817–60Minnesota+8.6+4.0#42-4.7#40
3924–63Notre Dame+6.8+1.9#57-4.9#37
4024–64Western Kentucky+6.6+6.1#34-0.5#60
4124–66Texas A&M+6.3+0.4#64-5.9#31
4226–67South Carolina+6.1+4.0#41-2.1#53
4326–69Iowa State+5.8-6.8#100-12.7#9
4427–69Toledo+5.5-0.8#65-6.3#28
4527–69Fresno State+5.4+1.6#59-3.9#45
4628–70Duke+5.1+6.9#29+1.8#74
4729–70Purdue+4.9+2.4#54-2.5#52
4828–71Marshall+4.9-10.0#117-14.9#7
4929–71NC State+4.9-4.4#87-9.3#19
5030–70Houston+4.8+9.4#20+4.6#90
5129–70Wake Forest+4.8+7.2#28+2.4#76
5231–71East Carolina+4.5+6.2#33+1.6#72
5334–71Texas Tech+4.3-1.6#69-5.8#33
5435–72Arkansas+3.8+8.3#24+4.5#89
5535–72Cincinnati+3.8-3.9#83-7.7#24
5635–73Missouri+3.7-4.5#88-8.1#22
5736–72North Carolina+3.5+13.0#13+9.5#115
5836–74Baylor+3.3+2.4#53-0.8#57
5939–77Syracuse+2.7+2.6#50-0.1#63
6039–76UCF+2.5+5.3#37+2.8#80
6139–77Troy+2.3-4.8#91-7.2#26
6239–80Liberty+1.4-3.3#80-4.7#39
6339–83App State+1.0+6.5#31+5.5#98
6441–83South Alabama+0.8-2.2#71-3.0#49
6541–85BYU+0.6+6.2#32+5.6#99
6643–85Memphis+0.4-3.3#79-3.7#46
6743–87Washington State+0.3-2.3#72-2.6#51
6844–87Georgia State+0.0-1.5#68-1.5#56
6946–88Oklahoma State-0.3-3.8#82-3.5#48
7047–88Coastal Carolina-0.8+9.8#19+10.6#119
7154–91West Virginia-1.7+2.5#51+4.2#86
7254–94San Diego State-2.0-7.0#104-5.0#36
7356–97Miami-2.3-6.0#94-3.6#47
7459–94North Texas-2.5+1.1#62+3.5#82
7559–97Arizona State-2.9+3.3#46+6.2#102
7659–97Arizona-3.0+10.1#18+13.1#125
7762–97SMU-3.3+4.8#38+8.1#111
7862–100Nebraska-4.0+1.1#61+5.1#96
7962–100Southern Miss-4.1-9.1#111-5.0#35
8062–101San José State-4.4-1.6#70+2.7#79
8163–100Louisiana-4.4-4.4#86+0.0#65
8263–101California-4.6-4.5#89+0.0#66
8363–105Virginia-5.0-10.2#118-5.2#34
8466–101Eastern Michigan-5.1+3.0#48+8.1#109
8567–105Tulsa-5.4-1.3#66+4.1#85
8668–104Middle Tennessee-5.4-8.0#109-2.6#50
8768–106Georgia Tech-5.7-9.9#116-4.2#42
8871–108Virginia Tech-6.9-7.0#105-0.1#64
8971–108Ohio-6.9+2.4#52+9.4#114
9072–109Buffalo-7.5-6.1#96+1.4#71
9171–109Florida Atlantic-7.5-2.7#76+4.8#94
9272–109Michigan State-7.7-2.3#73+5.4#97
9373–109Indiana-7.8-7.1#106+0.7#68
9473–111Boston College-8.2-6.9#103+1.3#70
9576–109Georgia Southern-8.3+4.6#39+12.9#124
9673–112Rutgers-8.3-12.9#122-4.6#41
9778–114Kent State-9.3+0.4#63+9.7#116
9878–115Northwestern-9.4-11.3#121-1.9#54
9978–114Wyoming-9.5-5.5#93+4.0#84
10080–116Temple-10.2-7.1#107+3.1#81
10182–117Vanderbilt-10.8-2.6#75+8.2#112
10283–117Stanford-10.9-3.9#84+7.0#107
10383–117Army-11.0-4.3#85+6.7#105
10485–117Navy-11.2-6.6#98+4.6#92
10587–117Central Michigan-11.3-6.9#102+4.4#88
10688–120Bowling Green-12.2-6.0#95+6.2#103
10788–119Old Dominion-12.3-6.6#99+5.7#100
10890–123UNLV-13.1-2.6#74+10.5#118
10993–123UConn-13.6-6.4#97+7.2#108
11094–123Utah State-13.7-9.4#114+4.2#87
11194–124Akron-14.3-8.1#110+6.2#101
11297–124Ball State-14.6-12.9#123+1.6#73
11397–125UL Monroe-14.7-4.8#90+9.9#117
11498–125Miami (OH)-15.3-10.5#119+4.8#95
115100–125Texas State-15.5-12.9#124+2.6#78
116101–126South Florida-16.6+3.0#47+19.7#131
117106–127Rice-17.3-5.3#92+12.1#123
118106–127Colorado State-17.8-15.3#126+2.5#77
119106–127Northern Illinois-18.0-3.2#78+14.7#127
120108–127UTEP-18.5-6.8#101+11.6#122
121108–127Arkansas State-18.5-7.2#108+11.4#121
122108–128New Mexico State-18.8-9.6#115+9.3#113
123111–128Nevada-19.9-15.3#127+4.6#91
124112–128Louisiana Tech-20.4-9.3#112+11.1#120
125116–131Western Michigan-22.1-17.3#128+4.8#93
126116–131Charlotte-22.8-3.4#81+19.4#130
127122–131New Mexico-24.9-26.5#131-1.7#55
128125–131Hawai'i-26.5-9.4#113+17.1#129
129125–131Florida International-27.3-14.0#125+13.3#126
130125–132Massachusetts-27.6-21.4#130+6.2#104
131129–132Colorado-33.5-18.8#129+14.8#128

Four ways to measure a team, and where each fails

This site publishes all four. That is not indecision — each answers a different question, and where they disagree is the information, not the noise.

Results · Elo, SRS

Measures: who beat whom, and by how much

Fails when: It cannot tell a good team from a lucky one. Elo moves on outcomes, and a season is twelve of them — a team that won three one-score games is rated as though it earned all three.

Efficiency · CORE, SP+

Measures: how good each play was, adjusted for situation and opponent

Fails when: It is indifferent to winning. A team can be the most efficient in the country and lose to the second-most because a punt was blocked, and the rating will not notice, because the rating is not about that.

The market · closing spreads

Measures: everything anyone knows, priced

Fails when: It is not published as a rating and it has no memory. It is the sharpest number available on any single game and it will not tell you who the fourth-best team in the country is.

Human polls · AP, coaches

Measures: reputation, weighted by results

Fails when: Inertia and brand. A preseason ranking survives contact with reality for weeks, and a team that starts unranked has to be much better than one that started at 12 to pass it.

How CORE is computed

  1. Remove the situation. For each play, predict its EPA from the game state alone — period, seconds left, score margin, down, distance, field position, home/away/neutral, pass or rush. No team identity is in those features, so what the model learns is what an average offense does from that spot. The residual is the part the situation does not explain.
  2. Remove the opponent. Offenses and defenses form one connected network across a season. Fit both sides at once — residual ~ offense(team) + defense(opponent) — by ridge regression over team dummies. Ridge rather than plain least squares because in September the schedule graph is barely connected, and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat up an overmatched opener.
  3. Report in points per 100 plays. Offense is points created above average; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is the difference.

Excluded: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS, special teams, non-scrimmage plays.

How sure is any of this? The small range under each rank is where a team would sit if its rating were one standard error better, or worse, than the estimate — about a two-in-three chance of covering the truth. It is wide on purpose: a season is a dozen games, and most of this table is one good afternoon away from a different order. Those bars are checked rather than claimed: fitting 2025’s odd and even weeks separately and standardising every team’s difference by its own two errors gives a spread of 0.93 on offense and 0.94 on defense, where 1.00 is exactly right-sized. It covers sampling error only — not the shrinkage the ridge applies on purpose, and not a team that changed in November.

What this is not. Not a prediction, not a forecast, not a projection of next week. It is a measurement of what happened per play, adjusted. The model that forecasts games is a different object and lives on the model record, where its actual edge is stated with the same bluntness.