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Gridpex

CORE Ratings

Analysis

How good each team is per play, once you account for who they played and the situations they were in. Zero is an average team; higher is better. points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Built from 96,125 plays across 772 games.

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt
Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Offense against defense

Offense across, defense up. Best teams are top right. Both numbers are adjusted for who each team played, so a soft schedule does not flatter anyone.

-20+0+20-20+0+20CORE offense (points per 100 plays)← worsebetter →CORE defense (vs average)← worsebetter →
130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = -0.35(r² = 0.12)

Where efficiency and the poll disagree

The gap between a team’s CORE rank and its AP rank. This is the column worth arguing about — it is where one of the two measures is about to be shown up.

#TeamCOREOffenseDefense
11–5Georgia+39.6+19.3#5-20.4#3
21–5Alabama+37.5+13.6#8-23.9#1
31–5Oklahoma+36.4+33.9#1-2.5#53
41–5Ohio State+36.2+19.9#3-16.3#8
55–10Clemson+30.3+6.5#31-23.8#2
65–11Auburn+28.1+8.1#24-20.0#4
75–12Penn State+27.3+14.9#7-12.4#12
85–13Wisconsin+26.5+8.4#21-18.1#6
95–14Oklahoma State+24.9+19.7#4-5.2#40
106–17UCF+23.9+15.1#6-8.7#23
117–18TCU+22.2+7.9#26-14.3#10
127–20Washington+21.4+10.0#17-11.4#16
139–20Notre Dame+20.8+9.9#18-10.9#18
1410–24Louisville+18.8+20.8#2+2.0#74
1510–24LSU+18.7+10.5#15-8.2#29
1610–24Mississippi State+18.5+3.5#42-15.1#9
1711–28Michigan+17.0-2.3#76-19.3#5
1812–31NC State+16.3+10.3#16-6.1#37
1912–31Wake Forest+16.1+12.6#10-3.6#47
2014–33USC+15.2+10.8#13-4.4#44
2114–38Miami+14.1+1.9#45-12.3#13
2214–41Missouri+13.8+12.8#9-0.9#60
2314–41Michigan State+13.6+5.1#35-8.5#25
2417–46Oregon+12.4+4.0#39-8.3#27
2517–46Virginia Tech+12.1+1.0#59-11.2#17
2617–46Stanford+12.0+10.5#14-1.5#58
2717–49Memphis+11.3+11.4#12+0.1#66
2818–51South Florida+11.0+1.1#58-9.9#20
2918–49Boston College+11.0-0.4#66-11.5#15
3018–51Florida State+10.9+0.7#60-10.3#19
3118–52Iowa State+10.6+4.1#38-6.6#33
3220–52West Virginia+10.2+7.7#27-2.5#52
3320–53Iowa+9.8+1.3#53-8.5#24
3421–56Texas+9.1-8.9#113-18.0#7
3521–56Boise State+8.9+4.1#37-4.8#42
3621–60Duke+8.7-5.0#97-13.7#11
3721–60South Carolina+8.5+0.1#63-8.4#26
3822–61Troy+8.2+1.9#44-6.3#34
3921–61Georgia Tech+8.1+8.4#22+0.3#67
4022–61San Diego State+7.9-0.1#64-8.0#30
4124–61Ohio+7.6+5.8#33-1.9#57
4224–61Fresno State+7.1+1.1#57-5.9#38
4324–62Washington State+6.8-5.2#99-11.9#14
4424–62Indiana+6.7-1.6#71-8.3#28
4526–61Florida Atlantic+6.5+7.6#28+1.1#68
4627–62Arizona+6.2+12.1#11+5.9#93
4727–62Texas A&M+6.1+1.6#49-4.4#43
4827–63Utah+5.8+0.5#62-5.3#39
4927–64App State+5.5+1.3#54-4.2#45
5031–64Houston+5.3-0.8#69-6.2#36
5132–64Northwestern+5.2-4.1#89-9.3#22
5232–67Ole Miss+4.3+8.1#25+3.8#79
5333–67Toledo+4.2+8.2#23+4.1#81
5434–67Purdue+4.1-2.2#75-6.3#35
5534–67Texas Tech+4.0+5.3#34+1.3#69
5634–69Navy+3.4+8.6#20+5.1#89
5735–70Arkansas State+3.2+0.6#61-2.6#50
5834–70Florida+3.1-3.6#86-6.7#31
5934–70Pittsburgh+3.1+1.2#55-1.9#56
6039–74Kansas State+2.3+1.6#50-0.7#61
6146–79Marshall+0.9-4.2#90-5.1#41
6248–83Northern Illinois+0.4-8.9#112-9.3#21
6346–84Vanderbilt+0.1+1.8#46+1.7#72
6452–84UCLA-0.5+3.9#40+4.4#86
6551–86Miami (OH)-0.7-2.8#79-2.1#55
6652–85Louisiana Tech-0.7+1.6#51+2.3#76
6752–90Army-1.8+8.9#19+10.7#114
6856–90Temple-2.3-4.8#96-2.5#51
6957–92Kentucky-2.5+3.9#41+6.3#97
7060–92Arizona State-3.0+1.8#48+4.8#87
7160–92Middle Tennessee-3.1-6.1#103-3.0#49
7261–93North Texas-3.3+2.6#43+5.9#92
7360–93SMU-3.3+6.8#29+10.2#112
7461–96Arkansas-3.9+5.0#36+8.8#107
7561–96Baylor-3.9-0.8#68+3.1#78
7661–96Virginia-4.1-7.2#107-3.1#48
7761–98Massachusetts-4.5+1.5#52+6.0#94
7861–98Eastern Michigan-4.6-8.4#111-3.9#46
7961–98Central Michigan-4.6-5.6#100-1.0#59
8062–98Syracuse-4.9+1.2#56+6.1#95
8162–98Southern Miss-5.1-5.6#101-0.6#62
8262–98UAB-5.2-3.2#84+2.0#73
8362–104UTSA-5.8-6.4#104-0.5#63
8465–104Colorado State-6.4+6.0#32+12.4#116
8567–104California-6.5-4.4#94+2.2#75
8665–104Tennessee-6.6-9.1#114-2.5#54
8767–104North Carolina-6.8-2.5#77+4.2#84
8867–104Buffalo-7.1-1.5#70+5.6#91
8967–105Western Michigan-7.7-3.8#88+3.9#80
9068–107Tulane-8.0-1.7#73+6.3#96
9168–105Utah State-8.0-8.1#110-0.1#65
9270–107Nebraska-8.7-0.4#65+8.3#105
9373–108Wyoming-9.3-15.9#126-6.6#32
9476–108New Mexico State-9.3-5.2#98+4.2#82
9577–108Western Kentucky-9.8-2.9#80+6.9#99
9676–109Minnesota-10.0-6.9#105+3.1#77
9774–110Georgia State-10.2-4.7#95+5.4#90
9880–114Rutgers-11.0-9.4#115+1.6#71
9983–112Colorado-11.1-2.9#81+8.2#104
10083–114Maryland-11.3-3.0#82+8.3#106
10183–114BYU-11.4-11.7#120-0.3#64
10283–115Cincinnati-11.7-4.3#91+7.4#102
10384–115Air Force-11.8+1.8#47+13.6#120
10490–120Coastal Carolina-13.7-3.7#87+10.0#111
10592–120Idaho-14.0-12.4#121+1.6#70
10692–120Florida International-14.1-1.7#72+12.4#117
10793–120UL Monroe-14.6+6.8#30+21.4#129
10895–122Nevada-15.6-3.2#83+12.4#118
10998–123New Mexico-16.4-7.2#106+9.2#109
11098–124Georgia Southern-16.7-7.4#108+9.3#110
11198–123Akron-16.8-12.6#122+4.2#83
112100–124Louisiana-17.1-3.5#85+13.5#119
113100–124UNLV-17.2-0.6#67+16.6#126
114102–124Illinois-17.4-10.8#116+6.6#98
115104–125Oregon State-18.0-4.3#92+13.7#121
116104–125UConn-18.5-8.1#109+10.4#113
117104–125Tulsa-18.6-4.3#93+14.3#123
118104–125Texas State-18.9-11.4#119+7.4#101
119104–125Kansas-19.0-10.9#117+8.1#103
120108–125South Alabama-20.7-16.4#127+4.3#85
121108–125Bowling Green-20.8-2.7#78+18.1#128
122109–127Hawai'i-22.4-6.0#102+16.4#125
123112–127Old Dominion-22.8-15.8#124+7.0#100
124114–129Kent State-23.7-18.7#128+5.0#88
125122–130East Carolina-27.2-1.8#74+25.4#130
126122–130Rice-28.1-11.3#118+16.7#127
127124–131Ball State-29.1-13.6#123+15.4#124
128125–131San José State-29.8-15.8#125+14.0#122
129126–131Charlotte-33.3-21.8#129+11.5#115
130127–131UTEP-35.1-26.3#130+8.8#108

Four ways to measure a team, and where each fails

This site publishes all four. That is not indecision — each answers a different question, and where they disagree is the information, not the noise.

Results · Elo, SRS

Measures: who beat whom, and by how much

Fails when: It cannot tell a good team from a lucky one. Elo moves on outcomes, and a season is twelve of them — a team that won three one-score games is rated as though it earned all three.

Efficiency · CORE, SP+

Measures: how good each play was, adjusted for situation and opponent

Fails when: It is indifferent to winning. A team can be the most efficient in the country and lose to the second-most because a punt was blocked, and the rating will not notice, because the rating is not about that.

The market · closing spreads

Measures: everything anyone knows, priced

Fails when: It is not published as a rating and it has no memory. It is the sharpest number available on any single game and it will not tell you who the fourth-best team in the country is.

Human polls · AP, coaches

Measures: reputation, weighted by results

Fails when: Inertia and brand. A preseason ranking survives contact with reality for weeks, and a team that starts unranked has to be much better than one that started at 12 to pass it.

How CORE is computed

  1. Remove the situation. For each play, predict its EPA from the game state alone — period, seconds left, score margin, down, distance, field position, home/away/neutral, pass or rush. No team identity is in those features, so what the model learns is what an average offense does from that spot. The residual is the part the situation does not explain.
  2. Remove the opponent. Offenses and defenses form one connected network across a season. Fit both sides at once — residual ~ offense(team) + defense(opponent) — by ridge regression over team dummies. Ridge rather than plain least squares because in September the schedule graph is barely connected, and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat up an overmatched opener.
  3. Report in points per 100 plays. Offense is points created above average; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is the difference.

Excluded: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS, special teams, non-scrimmage plays.

How sure is any of this? The small range under each rank is where a team would sit if its rating were one standard error better, or worse, than the estimate — about a two-in-three chance of covering the truth. It is wide on purpose: a season is a dozen games, and most of this table is one good afternoon away from a different order. Those bars are checked rather than claimed: fitting 2025’s odd and even weeks separately and standardising every team’s difference by its own two errors gives a spread of 0.93 on offense and 0.94 on defense, where 1.00 is exactly right-sized. It covers sampling error only — not the shrinkage the ridge applies on purpose, and not a team that changed in November.

What this is not. Not a prediction, not a forecast, not a projection of next week. It is a measurement of what happened per play, adjusted. The model that forecasts games is a different object and lives on the model record, where its actual edge is stated with the same bluntness.