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Gridpex

CORE Ratings

Analysis

How good each team is per play, once you account for who they played and the situations they were in. Zero is an average team; higher is better. points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Built from 96,743 plays across 808 games.

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt
Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Offense against defense

Offense across, defense up. Best teams are top right. Both numbers are adjusted for who each team played, so a soft schedule does not flatter anyone.

-20+0+20-20+0+20CORE offense (points per 100 plays)← worsebetter →CORE defense (vs average)← worsebetter →
136 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = -0.39(r² = 0.15)

Where efficiency and the poll disagree

The gap between a team’s CORE rank and its AP rank. This is the column worth arguing about — it is where one of the two measures is about to be shown up.

#TeamCOREOffenseDefense
11–6Ohio State+39.2+13.7#11-25.6#2
21–6Notre Dame+38.3+20.4#2-17.9#4
31–7Indiana+35.3+18.8#4-16.5#6
41–8Oregon+34.6+18.7#6-15.9#7
51–8Texas Tech+33.7+4.1#45-29.6#1
63–8Miami+31.1+13.5#12-17.6#5
74–9Utah+29.1+18.7#5-10.3#22
86–16Vanderbilt+25.4+27.6#1+2.2#72
98–23Texas A&M+22.7+12.2#17-10.5#21
108–23USC+22.5+18.2#7-4.3#42
118–26Washington+21.7+12.7#15-9.1#24
128–26Missouri+20.9+5.4#37-15.5#9
138–27James Madison+20.6+4.8#40-15.8#8
148–26Alabama+20.6+7.4#31-13.2#15
158–28Georgia+20.0+9.3#27-10.7#20
169–30Ole Miss+19.4+15.6#10-3.8#45
179–32Old Dominion+18.9+4.7#42-14.3#11
189–33Louisville+18.6+4.6#43-14.0#12
199–34Toledo+18.3+2.8#49-15.4#10
209–33BYU+18.0+10.2#24-7.8#26
219–34Oklahoma+17.8-1.6#78-19.4#3
229–35Michigan+17.4+11.1#21-6.3#35
2311–36Pittsburgh+16.8+4.1#44-12.6#17
2410–38Iowa+16.7+3.9#47-12.8#16
2511–39South Florida+16.2+11.3#20-4.9#40
2613–41Tennessee+15.0+16.0#9+1.0#66
2715–44SMU+14.6+9.3#28-5.2#38
2816–44Texas+14.3+5.5#36-8.8#25
2915–44Florida State+14.3+12.9#14-1.4#54
3017–46Auburn+13.6+1.8#58-11.8#18
3118–47TCU+13.2+6.1#34-7.1#31
3218–47Penn State+13.0+7.8#30-5.2#39
3320–51Arizona+12.4+4.7#41-7.7#28
3423–51North Texas+11.9+18.0#8+6.1#99
3523–53San Diego State+11.6-2.0#80-13.6#13
3623–53Illinois+11.1+9.7#25-1.4#55
3725–58Arkansas+10.7+19.5#3+8.8#114
3825–56Georgia Tech+10.6+13.2#13+2.6#76
3926–58Virginia+10.3+1.0#61-9.3#23
4026–59Washington State+10.0+2.5#51-7.4#30
4127–59Texas State+9.4+12.0#18+2.6#75
4227–59Wake Forest+9.3-4.2#89-13.5#14
4327–59Navy+9.3+12.6#16+3.3#84
4430–60Arizona State+8.2+2.0#57-6.3#36
4530–60LSU+8.1-2.9#84-11.0#19
4631–61East Carolina+7.8+2.4#52-5.4#37
4734–63Tulane+7.0+4.9#39-2.1#52
4833–63NC State+7.0+6.1#33-0.8#58
4933–63Kansas State+6.7+2.6#50-4.2#43
5034–63Cincinnati+6.7+11.9#19+5.1#92
5134–63Iowa State+6.4+2.0#56-4.4#41
5235–65Kentucky+5.8-1.9#79-7.8#27
5336–65South Carolina+5.3-1.3#77-6.6#33
5437–65Baylor+5.3+5.7#35+0.3#64
5537–65Boise State+5.3-1.2#76-6.5#34
5639–65Clemson+4.9+2.1#55-2.9#50
5737–66Kansas+4.9+10.4#22+5.5#95
5839–67UTSA+4.7+3.0#48-1.7#53
5942–71Florida+3.5+0.2#65-3.3#48
6046–72Duke+2.4+9.0#29+6.5#101
6147–75Memphis+2.0+4.0#46+2.0#70
6247–76Western Michigan+1.8-5.2#97-7.0#32
6352–81New Mexico+0.5-2.3#82-2.8#51
6453–81Mississippi State+0.1-1.1#75-1.2#57
6559–84Houston-0.9-0.7#70+0.1#61
6659–87Ohio-1.1+1.4#60+2.5#73
6759–90Northwestern-1.8-0.4#68+1.4#69
6859–90Nebraska-1.8+0.3#63+2.1#71
6959–89UNLV-1.9+10.2#23+12.1#127
7060–90Louisiana Tech-2.2-6.3#103-4.1#44
7160–91Marshall-2.7+0.2#64+2.9#80
7260–93Wisconsin-3.3-11.0#119-7.7#29
7361–92Fresno State-3.4-7.1#106-3.8#46
7461–92Army-3.5-0.3#67+3.3#83
7561–95Maryland-3.8-7.4#107-3.5#47
7663–93Kennesaw State-3.9+2.2#54+6.1#98
7763–95Utah State-4.1-1.0#72+3.1#81
7863–97San José State-4.3-1.1#74+3.3#85
7963–100Rutgers-4.9+9.5#26+14.4#131
8063–100UCF-5.0-6.2#102-1.2#56
8165–100Miami (OH)-6.0-6.8#104-0.8#59
8265–100Hawai'i-6.2+0.8#62+7.0#104
8365–100Western Kentucky-6.3-6.1#101+0.2#62
8465–102UCLA-6.4-2.1#81+4.4#88
8566–102California-6.6-3.9#88+2.7#78
8667–102Southern Miss-6.7-5.7#100+1.1#67
8766–103Central Michigan-6.9-4.4#91+2.5#74
8867–103Liberty-7.1+1.7#59+8.8#113
8970–104UConn-7.6+5.1#38+12.7#129
9071–104Tulsa-8.2-8.0#111+0.2#63
9172–105Michigan State-8.6-4.4#93+4.2#87
9275–107Missouri State-9.3-0.5#69+8.8#115
9374–112Purdue-9.5-4.3#90+5.2#93
9475–112Virginia Tech-9.5-0.2#66+9.3#117
9578–113Boston College-10.0-0.8#71+9.2#116
9678–114Minnesota-10.1-6.9#105+3.2#82
9779–116North Carolina-10.5-7.8#109+2.7#77
9879–116West Virginia-10.6-11.1#120-0.5#60
9981–115Jacksonville State-10.7-3.8#87+6.9#103
10081–121Temple-11.9-3.3#85+8.6#111
10183–121Colorado-11.9-4.8#94+7.1#106
10288–121Stanford-12.6-11.4#121+1.2#68
10389–123Florida Atlantic-13.1-1.1#73+12.0#126
10491–126South Alabama-14.2-3.6#86+10.6#120
10592–126Georgia Southern-14.7+2.3#53+17.0#134
10692–127Oregon State-14.8-9.3#114+5.5#94
10793–126Delaware-15.0-5.1#96+9.9#118
10892–128UL Monroe-15.2-7.9#110+7.3#107
10995–128Florida International-15.2-10.8#117+4.4#90
11092–129Nevada-15.3-10.9#118+4.4#89
11195–128Wyoming-15.3-18.2#131-2.9#49
11295–129UAB-15.8-4.4#92+11.3#124
11397–129Middle Tennessee-15.9-5.0#95+10.9#121
11497–129Eastern Michigan-16.0-2.5#83+13.4#130
11599–129Coastal Carolina-16.4-8.4#113+8.1#109
116100–129Troy-16.6-13.1#125+3.5#86
117100–130Georgia State-16.7-5.6#99+11.1#123
118100–129Arkansas State-16.8-10.5#116+6.3#100
119100–131Air Force-17.3+6.4#32+23.7#136
120100–131New Mexico State-17.5-11.8#122+5.7#96
121103–131App State-18.4-9.7#115+8.7#112
122103–131Bowling Green-18.8-15.9#130+2.9#79
123104–131Colorado State-19.4-7.5#108+11.8#125
124104–131Buffalo-19.7-14.9#128+4.8#91
125104–131Kent State-19.8-5.4#98+14.4#132
126107–131Louisiana-20.6-8.1#112+12.5#128
127106–133Syracuse-20.9-14.2#126+6.6#102
128112–133Akron-21.3-12.8#124+8.5#110
129115–134Northern Illinois-22.4-14.7#127+7.7#108
130119–134Oklahoma State-22.9-11.8#123+11.1#122
131128–135UTEP-26.7-26.0#136+0.7#65
132128–135Rice-26.8-19.8#132+7.0#105
133129–136Ball State-27.9-21.9#133+6.0#97
134131–136Sam Houston-30.3-15.1#129+15.3#133
135133–136Charlotte-33.1-22.9#135+10.2#119
136136–137Massachusetts-40.3-22.2#134+18.1#135

Four ways to measure a team, and where each fails

This site publishes all four. That is not indecision — each answers a different question, and where they disagree is the information, not the noise.

Results · Elo, SRS

Measures: who beat whom, and by how much

Fails when: It cannot tell a good team from a lucky one. Elo moves on outcomes, and a season is twelve of them — a team that won three one-score games is rated as though it earned all three.

Efficiency · CORE, SP+

Measures: how good each play was, adjusted for situation and opponent

Fails when: It is indifferent to winning. A team can be the most efficient in the country and lose to the second-most because a punt was blocked, and the rating will not notice, because the rating is not about that.

The market · closing spreads

Measures: everything anyone knows, priced

Fails when: It is not published as a rating and it has no memory. It is the sharpest number available on any single game and it will not tell you who the fourth-best team in the country is.

Human polls · AP, coaches

Measures: reputation, weighted by results

Fails when: Inertia and brand. A preseason ranking survives contact with reality for weeks, and a team that starts unranked has to be much better than one that started at 12 to pass it.

How CORE is computed

  1. Remove the situation. For each play, predict its EPA from the game state alone — period, seconds left, score margin, down, distance, field position, home/away/neutral, pass or rush. No team identity is in those features, so what the model learns is what an average offense does from that spot. The residual is the part the situation does not explain.
  2. Remove the opponent. Offenses and defenses form one connected network across a season. Fit both sides at once — residual ~ offense(team) + defense(opponent) — by ridge regression over team dummies. Ridge rather than plain least squares because in September the schedule graph is barely connected, and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat up an overmatched opener.
  3. Report in points per 100 plays. Offense is points created above average; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is the difference.

Excluded: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS, special teams, non-scrimmage plays.

How sure is any of this? The small range under each rank is where a team would sit if its rating were one standard error better, or worse, than the estimate — about a two-in-three chance of covering the truth. It is wide on purpose: a season is a dozen games, and most of this table is one good afternoon away from a different order. Those bars are checked rather than claimed: fitting 2025’s odd and even weeks separately and standardising every team’s difference by its own two errors gives a spread of 0.93 on offense and 0.94 on defense, where 1.00 is exactly right-sized. It covers sampling error only — not the shrinkage the ridge applies on purpose, and not a team that changed in November.

What this is not. Not a prediction, not a forecast, not a projection of next week. It is a measurement of what happened per play, adjusted. The model that forecasts games is a different object and lives on the model record, where its actual edge is stated with the same bluntness.