Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+25.7%

Washington State

Least

−36.8%

Army

Spread

62.5%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.27(r² = 0.07)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±37%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Washington State	Pac-12	74.1	48.4	+25.7	+27.5	14	-3.3	-50.0
2	New Mexico State	Sun Belt	67.5	50.0	+17.5	+20.4	11	-0.5	-39.0
3	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	67.0	50.4	+16.7	+15.8	23	+6.3	-9.8
4	UCLA	Pac-12	61.3	49.0	+12.3	+13.1	22	+1.0	-20.8
5	Virginia	ACC	61.6	50.4	+11.2	+12.9	22	-2.0	-39.2
6	East Carolina	American Athletic	60.7	49.6	+11.1	+9.2	22	-0.8	-20.5
7	Texas Tech	Big 12	59.0	48.9	+10.1	+11.6	18	-0.7	-37.5
8	Nevada	Mountain West	59.2	49.8	+9.3	+9.4	25	+2.7	-25.0
9	Ole Miss	SEC	58.5	49.4	+9.1	+8.9	11	-6.4	-51.3
10	Penn State	Big Ten	55.7	46.7	+9.0	+9.4	18	-1.4	-34.2
11	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	57.3	48.3	+9.0	+8.7	15	-3.7	-34.2
12	Iowa State	Big 12	56.0	47.1	+8.9	+6.0	18	-5.2	-37.5
13	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	57.5	48.7	+8.8	+9.1	17	+2.7	-30.3
14	Purdue	Big Ten	58.7	50.0	+8.6	+10.1	18	-1.6	-46.4
15	Indiana	Big Ten	60.4	52.0	+8.4	+8.0	15	-7.3	-43.1
16	Memphis	American Athletic	56.4	48.3	+8.2	+8.4	21	+2.7	-26.5
17	California	Pac-12	59.0	51.1	+7.9	+6.6	24	-1.0	-23.3
18	Miami	ACC	56.0	48.2	+7.8	+8.6	7	-7.7	-61.2
19	Syracuse	ACC	58.9	51.5	+7.4	+10.8	32	-0.2	-12.9
20	North Texas	Conference USA	54.2	46.9	+7.2	+7.5	28	-2.5	-25.0
21	South Alabama	Sun Belt	58.0	51.2	+6.9	+6.4	14	-2.8	-33.3
22	South Carolina	SEC	54.6	47.8	+6.8	+6.6	13	-7.7	-43.9
23	Troy	Sun Belt	55.7	49.2	+6.5	+7.0	21	+1.6	-33.3
24	West Virginia	Big 12	56.4	50.2	+6.2	+5.8	19	-1.5	-17.9
25	Oklahoma State	Big 12	54.3	48.2	+6.1	+7.8	21	-1.8	-33.3
26	Nebraska	Big Ten	56.2	50.5	+5.7	+2.9	22	-0.7	-38.6
27	Vanderbilt	SEC	55.7	50.0	+5.7	+2.7	19	-2.7	-37.1
28	Oklahoma	Big 12	48.9	43.2	+5.6	+6.6	24	-2.5	-39.0
29	USC	Pac-12	51.2	45.7	+5.5	+5.9	25	+0.7	-16.0
30	UCF	American Athletic	50.3	44.9	+5.4	+6.2	19	-1.7	-51.8
31	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	53.8	48.5	+5.2	+3.4	16	-1.6	-40.4
32	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	58.5	53.5	+5.0	+4.7	21	+1.2	+2.3
33	Temple	American Athletic	52.8	48.2	+4.6	+4.3	18	-3.1	-31.9
34	Akron	Mid-American	54.5	50.1	+4.4	+4.8	9	-5.9	-57.5
35	Buffalo	Mid-American	52.2	47.8	+4.4	+4.1	12	-7.4	-51.2
36	Central Michigan	Mid-American	53.6	49.2	+4.4	+2.9	12	-0.3	-42.5
37	NC State	ACC	52.1	47.8	+4.2	+2.0	27	-2.2	-30.4
38	Texas	Big 12	53.7	49.6	+4.1	+4.8	24	-0.1	-28.8
39	Georgia State	Sun Belt	52.6	48.6	+4.0	+2.5	9	-9.9	-57.6
40	Boise State	Mountain West	49.3	45.4	+4.0	+2.9	14	-4.1	-46.7
41	Cincinnati	American Athletic	57.1	53.1	+3.9	+3.6	14	-0.9	-29.6
42	SMU	American Athletic	54.1	50.3	+3.9	+1.8	19	-0.2	-22.5
43	Kansas	Big 12	59.0	55.2	+3.8	+2.4	20	-6.1	-16.4
44	Hawai'i	Mountain West	55.6	52.2	+3.5	+3.5	25	+0.4	-19.6
45	TCU	Big 12	47.9	44.6	+3.3	+3.7	12	-8.9	-51.2
46	Marshall	Conference USA	52.5	49.3	+3.2	+3.3	20	-1.5	-26.7
47	Utah State	Mountain West	51.9	49.3	+2.6	+2.5	15	-5.9	-50.0
48	Houston	American Athletic	51.1	48.6	+2.5	+2.4	21	-2.3	-40.0
49	Utah	Pac-12	50.2	47.8	+2.4	+2.9	15	-1.1	-38.5
50	Fresno State	Mountain West	47.2	44.9	+2.4	+1.1	12	-6.4	-50.0
51	Duke	ACC	51.1	48.8	+2.4	+2.7	22	+3.4	-19.6
52	Clemson	ACC	47.9	45.6	+2.3	+1.9	15	-1.7	-48.0
53	Northwestern	Big Ten	50.9	48.7	+2.2	+2.9	34	+8.3	-9.7
54	Baylor	Big 12	57.4	55.2	+2.2	+0.7	25	-2.8	-9.1
55	Bowling Green	Mid-American	52.5	50.8	+1.8	+3.1	14	-5.1	-40.6
56	Louisville	ACC	52.2	50.5	+1.7	+2.9	31	+3.5	-7.1
57	Washington	Pac-12	49.2	47.5	+1.7	+1.5	14	-2.2	-27.3
58	BYU	FBS Independents	53.5	52.1	+1.4	+0.9	26	+2.5	-29.1
59	Colorado State	Mountain West	49.6	48.5	+1.1	-0.6	22	+0.0	-31.4
60	Idaho	Sun Belt	52.7	51.6	+1.1	+0.4	18	-1.3	-24.3
61	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	48.6	47.6	+1.0	+1.1	12	-4.0	-43.2
62	North Carolina	ACC	53.8	53.1	+0.7	-1.8	19	-0.4	-31.4
63	UConn	American Athletic	50.5	50.0	+0.5	+0.5	26	+2.0	-13.3
64	Louisiana	Sun Belt	50.7	50.2	+0.5	+0.3	17	-3.9	-33.3
65	Missouri	SEC	50.3	49.8	+0.5	+1.4	11	-3.2	-58.3
66	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	50.9	50.4	+0.5	-0.5	15	-6.1	-46.7
67	Illinois	Big Ten	52.4	52.2	+0.3	-1.5	9	-9.0	-45.0
68	San José State	Mountain West	53.8	53.9	-0.1	-0.7	14	-8.9	-36.4
69	Toledo	Mid-American	46.7	46.8	-0.2	-0.2	18	-2.7	-46.0
70	Ohio State	Big Ten	45.5	45.8	-0.2	+0.6	22	-2.5	-47.5
71	Oregon State	Pac-12	51.4	52.0	-0.6	-2.8	10	-12.0	-40.5
72	Texas A&M	SEC	49.8	50.5	-0.7	-0.3	12	-10.1	-50.0
73	Colorado	Pac-12	49.0	49.7	-0.7	-0.6	27	-0.5	-8.9
74	Florida State	ACC	47.8	48.8	-0.9	-1.7	11	-7.3	-29.0
75	Southern Miss	Conference USA	49.6	50.6	-1.1	-2.4	20	+0.5	-26.7
76	Michigan State	Big Ten	46.2	47.4	-1.2	-1.8	16	-5.1	-50.0
77	Arizona State	Pac-12	46.6	48.0	-1.4	-2.2	18	-3.5	-34.0
78	Texas State	Sun Belt	49.7	51.1	-1.5	+0.0	10	-5.6	-37.0
79	Wake Forest	ACC	48.1	49.6	-1.5	+0.5	17	-4.4	-45.1
80	Pittsburgh	ACC	48.9	50.6	-1.7	-2.8	18	-3.7	-20.9
81	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	47.4	49.2	-1.8	-2.9	22	-5.0	-31.6
82	Florida International	Conference USA	47.1	49.0	-1.8	-4.0	18	-1.0	-20.5
83	Iowa	Big Ten	46.1	48.1	-2.0	-4.1	17	+1.1	-25.0
84	Wyoming	Mountain West	49.7	51.7	-2.0	-2.1	13	-10.2	-52.4
85	Kentucky	SEC	45.1	47.6	-2.5	-3.8	9	-5.8	-58.8
86	Tennessee	SEC	48.4	51.3	-2.9	-6.0	8	-6.2	-41.2
87	Ball State	Mid-American	50.3	53.8	-3.4	-5.1	15	-9.0	-38.1
88	UAB	Conference USA	43.3	47.0	-3.7	-3.2	9	-4.8	-56.7
89	Florida	SEC	48.4	52.1	-3.7	-4.1	19	-1.8	-31.8
90	App State	Sun Belt	43.6	47.3	-3.7	-4.1	22	+1.5	-36.4
91	Stanford	Pac-12	45.3	49.4	-4.1	-5.5	11	-2.1	-50.0
92	Arkansas	SEC	46.2	50.3	-4.1	-6.2	17	+1.0	-36.4
93	UTEP	Conference USA	50.4	54.5	-4.1	-5.6	14	-2.6	-28.6
94	Virginia Tech	ACC	45.0	49.2	-4.2	-6.4	24	-1.1	-27.8
95	Michigan	Big Ten	43.8	48.2	-4.4	-6.8	13	-2.5	-41.3
96	Maryland	Big Ten	47.3	51.7	-4.5	-4.0	21	-1.2	-22.5
97	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	45.8	50.3	-4.5	-2.2	15	-3.6	-45.1
98	UTSA	Conference USA	44.9	49.4	-4.5	-5.4	16	-3.9	-48.8
99	Auburn	SEC	42.6	47.1	-4.5	-5.8	13	-6.3	-20.9
100	Alabama	SEC	41.5	46.1	-4.7	-5.0	17	-6.4	-46.7
101	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	43.5	48.5	-5.1	-4.3	17	-1.0	-30.4
102	Ohio	Mid-American	39.8	45.1	-5.3	-5.1	8	-9.3	-51.7
103	Old Dominion	Conference USA	44.4	50.2	-5.9	-3.0	21	+0.4	-40.5
104	Wisconsin	Big Ten	38.0	44.2	-6.1	-10.8	6	-10.4	-68.6
105	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	44.6	51.0	-6.4	-6.8	19	-1.1	-22.2
106	South Florida	American Athletic	39.6	46.4	-6.8	-5.1	19	-1.4	-47.6
107	UNLV	Mountain West	40.4	47.2	-6.8	-6.7	21	+0.4	-23.5
108	LSU	SEC	38.2	46.4	-8.1	-12.2	9	-7.5	-46.0
109	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	37.8	46.1	-8.3	-6.4	36	+13.7	-8.7
110	Rutgers	Big Ten	41.7	50.8	-9.1	-13.1	7	-6.6	-64.5
111	Charlotte	Conference USA	45.7	55.0	-9.2	-9.4	18	-6.8	-35.6
112	Georgia	SEC	37.2	47.0	-9.8	-12.5	5	-9.2	-67.7
113	Western Michigan	Mid-American	40.0	49.9	-9.8	-9.1	16	-5.1	-35.6
114	Mississippi State	SEC	37.6	47.4	-9.8	-10.9	25	-0.4	-28.6
115	Boston College	ACC	40.9	51.0	-10.1	-13.7	20	-2.4	-28.3
116	Oregon	Pac-12	36.3	47.0	-10.6	-10.3	18	-4.5	-35.9
117	Kansas State	Big 12	37.6	48.6	-11.1	-11.9	11	-4.4	-38.9
118	San Diego State	Mountain West	35.2	47.2	-12.0	-12.9	9	-3.9	-46.4
119	Arizona	Pac-12	36.1	48.5	-12.4	-14.1	16	-2.9	-39.5
120	Minnesota	Big Ten	35.8	48.5	-12.7	-12.9	13	-8.2	-56.8
121	Tulsa	American Athletic	35.7	50.1	-14.4	-14.7	20	-3.1	-30.4
122	Kent State	Mid-American	38.6	53.3	-14.8	-16.1	16	-4.8	-27.5
123	Tulane	American Athletic	35.2	51.0	-15.8	-13.1	25	+5.5	-14.3
124	Rice	Conference USA	35.4	52.3	-16.8	-16.0	22	+3.1	-25.0
125	New Mexico	Mountain West	32.3	52.7	-20.4	-21.4	17	-4.9	-30.4
126	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	25.4	53.4	-28.0	-29.0	20	-2.1	-34.9
127	Georgia Tech	ACC	18.5	46.5	-28.0	-29.2	24	+5.9	-15.6
128	Air Force	Mountain West	18.4	48.4	-30.1	-29.6	33	-0.4	-17.4
129	Navy	American Athletic	11.2	47.6	-36.4	-34.0	37	+4.0	-9.4
130	Army	FBS Independents	8.0	44.8	-36.8	-36.5	46	+15.8	-21.9

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.