Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+30.9%

Washington State

Least

−34.2%

Army

Spread

65.1%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

128 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.25(r² = 0.06)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±34%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Washington State	Pac-12	77.7	46.8	+30.9	+32.5	31	+8.9	-19.6
2	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	60.4	46.7	+13.8	+14.0	26	+3.9	-22.2
3	BYU	FBS Independents	60.6	47.7	+12.8	+14.6	18	+3.3	-40.0
4	Mississippi State	SEC	61.3	48.7	+12.7	+15.0	21	-2.6	-32.6
5	California	Pac-12	60.2	47.8	+12.4	+12.8	27	-1.9	-29.8
6	Ole Miss	SEC	56.5	44.3	+12.2	+14.4	14	-5.6	-48.7
7	Bowling Green	Mid-American	56.6	45.3	+11.3	+13.4	37	+10.4	+2.6
8	Georgia State	Sun Belt	59.1	48.7	+10.4	+9.6	10	-5.7	-51.5
9	Florida International	Conference USA	60.5	50.1	+10.4	+11.2	23	-4.4	-14.3
10	Illinois	Big Ten	63.2	53.0	+10.2	+9.4	16	-4.1	-29.2
11	Texas Tech	Big 12	58.5	48.4	+10.2	+11.6	23	+7.7	-10.7
12	Central Michigan	Mid-American	60.0	50.1	+9.9	+9.1	14	-5.6	-41.5
13	Oklahoma State	Big 12	58.7	48.9	+9.8	+10.4	9	-5.9	-39.5
14	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	56.5	47.1	+9.4	+9.7	9	-11.3	-60.5
15	Florida State	ACC	54.4	46.2	+8.2	+6.9	8	-8.5	-62.2
16	UCLA	Pac-12	56.5	48.7	+7.8	+6.9	10	-7.6	-54.0
17	Southern Miss	Conference USA	56.8	49.2	+7.5	+6.6	33	-0.1	-29.6
18	Massachusetts	Mid-American	58.7	51.2	+7.4	+7.8	29	+8.8	+2.1
19	Cincinnati	American Athletic	56.3	48.8	+7.4	+7.1	10	-4.3	-28.0
20	Miami	ACC	54.3	46.9	+7.4	+5.8	11	-5.4	-41.9
21	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	55.5	48.2	+7.3	+7.5	23	-2.5	-33.3
22	Troy	Sun Belt	58.4	51.2	+7.2	+7.9	14	-4.0	-28.6
23	Old Dominion	Conference USA	59.7	52.6	+7.1	+10.6	17	+0.6	-22.9
24	Boise State	Mountain West	56.2	49.5	+6.7	+5.1	21	-0.8	-32.5
25	East Carolina	American Athletic	57.7	51.0	+6.6	+6.9	17	-1.9	-35.6
26	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	60.0	54.0	+6.0	+3.9	22	+3.7	-22.4
27	Texas A&M	SEC	54.4	49.1	+5.3	+3.6	14	-8.2	-38.3
28	Purdue	Big Ten	57.2	52.0	+5.1	+5.6	31	+1.0	-9.3
29	Arizona State	Pac-12	54.0	49.0	+5.0	+2.2	13	-6.6	-50.9
30	Arizona	Pac-12	53.7	48.9	+4.8	+4.4	23	-0.6	-21.3
31	Marshall	Conference USA	52.3	47.7	+4.6	+4.4	11	-4.9	-42.9
32	Idaho	Sun Belt	54.3	49.8	+4.6	+5.0	22	+2.3	-23.5
33	Penn State	Big Ten	54.1	49.7	+4.4	+4.4	17	-3.1	-35.6
34	Michigan	Big Ten	50.7	46.5	+4.2	+1.5	14	-5.3	-53.8
35	Duke	ACC	54.9	50.7	+4.1	+1.6	19	-5.4	-40.4
36	New Mexico State	Sun Belt	54.8	51.2	+3.5	+6.3	27	+3.1	-15.2
37	Memphis	American Athletic	50.9	47.5	+3.5	+5.5	13	-2.8	-36.6
38	Kansas	Big 12	56.9	53.5	+3.4	+2.9	13	-7.4	-36.4
39	Oklahoma	Big 12	50.4	47.1	+3.4	+4.2	17	-2.6	-32.4
40	Toledo	Mid-American	47.9	44.8	+3.1	+0.5	22	-0.0	-31.7
41	TCU	Big 12	51.6	48.5	+3.0	+3.8	15	-6.5	-50.0
42	Buffalo	Mid-American	55.0	52.1	+2.9	+2.6	19	-2.6	-32.6
43	Washington	Pac-12	52.6	49.8	+2.8	+1.0	11	-11.9	-53.3
44	Louisville	ACC	51.4	48.8	+2.6	+4.6	12	-6.1	-40.4
45	UCF	American Athletic	57.5	54.9	+2.5	-1.3	17	-2.6	-31.6
46	Ball State	Mid-American	53.8	51.4	+2.5	+2.5	21	-0.6	-27.3
47	Tulane	American Athletic	55.2	52.8	+2.4	-0.3	13	-0.5	-36.7
48	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	49.1	46.7	+2.4	+0.7	10	-5.5	-45.7
49	Clemson	ACC	46.4	44.0	+2.4	+2.0	11	-4.3	-55.6
50	USC	Pac-12	51.7	49.5	+2.2	+2.3	26	-0.2	-21.6
51	Kentucky	SEC	52.6	50.6	+2.0	+1.3	17	-2.6	-30.8
52	Wisconsin	Big Ten	49.0	47.0	+2.0	-1.3	9	-7.2	-44.4
53	North Carolina	ACC	48.2	46.3	+1.9	+0.0	12	-7.9	-54.5
54	Hawai'i	Mountain West	52.9	51.1	+1.8	-1.8	16	-3.1	-35.9
55	Colorado	Pac-12	52.6	50.8	+1.8	+1.1	20	-6.5	-22.2
56	Western Michigan	Mid-American	50.4	48.7	+1.7	+0.9	25	+2.2	-29.7
57	Wake Forest	ACC	55.7	54.5	+1.2	+1.7	15	-6.9	-30.9
58	Michigan State	Big Ten	47.0	45.9	+1.1	-1.8	16	+0.6	-42.9
59	Virginia	ACC	52.4	51.4	+1.0	-1.2	17	+0.4	-40.0
60	Missouri	SEC	52.7	51.8	+0.9	+2.2	13	-4.4	-36.0
61	Temple	American Athletic	49.7	48.9	+0.9	-0.5	17	-2.6	-39.3
62	Iowa State	Big 12	49.6	49.0	+0.5	-2.2	25	-0.8	-22.5
63	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	52.8	52.5	+0.3	-0.9	15	-9.4	-17.1
64	Florida	SEC	50.2	50.1	+0.1	+1.3	19	+2.0	-30.0
65	Alabama	SEC	44.8	44.9	-0.0	-0.4	15	-3.1	-38.0
66	Nebraska	Big Ten	48.9	49.1	-0.2	-1.2	9	-8.8	-40.9
67	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	53.8	54.1	-0.3	-0.1	16	-2.5	-23.4
68	NC State	ACC	49.7	50.2	-0.5	-0.9	24	+0.0	-15.7
69	Fresno State	Mountain West	52.3	53.0	-0.7	+0.4	24	-2.4	-20.9
70	Iowa	Big Ten	43.0	43.7	-0.8	-2.6	9	-4.1	-62.8
71	Tulsa	American Athletic	50.3	51.3	-1.0	-0.5	22	-2.8	-33.3
72	Oregon	Pac-12	42.9	45.1	-2.2	-2.3	21	+3.2	-29.7
73	North Texas	Conference USA	50.4	52.6	-2.3	-3.4	16	-2.0	-25.7
74	Arkansas	SEC	44.4	46.7	-2.3	-3.2	24	+3.1	-16.1
75	Indiana	Big Ten	44.8	47.1	-2.3	-2.6	23	+2.6	-26.4
76	Louisiana	Sun Belt	48.7	51.2	-2.5	-2.2	20	-0.8	-20.9
77	Minnesota	Big Ten	50.3	52.8	-2.5	-4.6	13	-8.2	-35.3
78	Ohio	Mid-American	45.5	48.1	-2.6	-2.9	17	-2.8	-39.6
79	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	47.1	49.9	-2.8	-2.2	28	+4.3	-19.6
80	Texas State	Sun Belt	48.2	51.0	-2.8	-4.2	18	+1.9	-20.0
81	Utah State	Mountain West	50.1	53.0	-2.9	-2.9	22	-6.8	-34.7
82	Houston	American Athletic	43.6	46.5	-2.9	-3.6	22	+1.6	-43.8
83	Virginia Tech	ACC	46.1	49.0	-2.9	-5.2	10	-5.5	-44.9
84	UTSA	Conference USA	47.8	51.0	-3.1	-4.0	14	-4.7	-32.4
85	Rice	Conference USA	46.2	49.3	-3.1	-4.3	12	-3.6	-45.8
86	Pittsburgh	ACC	44.4	47.6	-3.2	-4.9	15	-4.1	-46.2
87	San José State	Mountain West	47.1	50.3	-3.2	-3.8	22	+0.6	-30.9
88	West Virginia	Big 12	44.8	48.7	-3.9	-4.9	12	-6.7	-68.2
89	UConn	American Athletic	46.9	50.9	-4.0	-4.7	17	-5.9	-36.0
90	Charlotte	Conference USA	47.4	51.4	-4.0	-5.1	14	-3.0	-28.9
91	Georgia	SEC	44.0	48.1	-4.1	-6.5	11	-9.3	-54.5
92	Akron	Mid-American	44.2	48.4	-4.2	-2.4	11	-8.0	-41.9
93	UNLV	Mountain West	46.5	50.7	-4.2	-6.7	16	-4.9	-39.1
94	Ohio State	Big Ten	39.1	43.4	-4.3	-3.6	14	-1.3	-52.2
95	Utah	Pac-12	41.2	45.5	-4.3	-4.1	19	-1.8	-40.0
96	Colorado State	Mountain West	43.1	47.7	-4.7	-6.2	20	-0.3	-28.9
97	Oregon State	Pac-12	48.5	53.2	-4.7	-6.6	14	-3.7	-33.3
98	South Carolina	SEC	47.9	52.6	-4.7	-4.7	16	-0.5	-26.8
99	SMU	American Athletic	47.9	52.6	-4.7	-6.3	21	-4.0	-29.7
100	Maryland	Big Ten	50.1	54.9	-4.7	-5.2	20	-1.1	-25.0
101	South Alabama	Sun Belt	45.9	50.6	-4.8	-6.8	16	-1.4	-28.1
102	Syracuse	ACC	46.3	51.2	-4.9	-5.9	13	-8.2	-41.0
103	Rutgers	Big Ten	45.2	50.2	-5.0	-7.3	19	-2.1	-19.4
104	UTEP	Conference USA	47.8	53.5	-5.7	-9.2	14	-7.3	-38.5
105	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	40.9	46.9	-5.9	-7.1	15	-4.4	-45.0
106	Kansas State	Big 12	44.4	50.4	-6.0	-7.8	16	-3.3	-24.4
107	Tennessee	SEC	41.6	48.3	-6.7	-7.8	13	-2.8	-43.9
108	Northwestern	Big Ten	40.0	46.8	-6.8	-9.7	7	-6.7	-56.8
109	Stanford	Pac-12	37.7	45.4	-7.7	-8.5	19	-4.7	-45.5
110	Baylor	Big 12	37.7	45.4	-7.7	-5.4	39	+10.0	-13.0
111	Vanderbilt	SEC	44.8	52.6	-7.8	-9.1	16	-2.7	-38.8
112	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	41.0	49.0	-8.1	-7.5	25	-0.6	-16.1
113	Kent State	Mid-American	43.8	52.1	-8.3	-8.8	14	-1.5	-41.7
114	LSU	SEC	37.9	46.6	-8.7	-11.5	10	-3.6	-50.0
115	Nevada	Mountain West	39.6	48.7	-9.1	-11.4	17	-6.2	-34.8
116	Auburn	SEC	36.5	47.0	-10.5	-13.8	15	-6.7	-45.2
117	South Florida	American Athletic	36.9	48.3	-11.4	-12.5	19	-2.5	-35.4
118	App State	Sun Belt	36.5	48.1	-11.6	-15.1	18	+3.4	-31.3
119	Wyoming	Mountain West	40.9	53.2	-12.3	-14.4	22	-6.9	-25.6
120	Texas	Big 12	35.0	50.2	-15.2	-15.2	13	-0.2	-35.9
121	San Diego State	Mountain West	30.0	46.5	-16.5	-20.1	9	-8.9	-63.0
122	Boston College	ACC	36.0	55.3	-19.3	-23.6	11	-5.1	-40.0
123	New Mexico	Mountain West	27.9	49.6	-21.8	-21.8	18	-0.5	-35.6
124	Georgia Tech	ACC	28.5	53.3	-24.8	-26.1	29	+2.9	+5.1
125	Navy	American Athletic	16.8	43.2	-26.4	-25.2	33	+0.5	-27.7
126	Air Force	Mountain West	19.3	46.6	-27.3	-26.9	20	-8.6	-49.1
127	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	16.7	46.8	-30.1	-29.4	29	+2.1	-27.5
128	Army	FBS Independents	15.7	49.9	-34.2	-34.6	26	+1.6	-20.0

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.