Upsets
AnalysisAll analysis →
“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.
Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.
| # | Result | Season | Dog by | Miss | Win prob | Poll gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State over Wisconsin 59–0 · neutral site · 2014-12-07 | 2014 | +3 | +62.0 | 43% | — |
| 2 | Wake Forest over Duke 59–7 · on the road · 2018-11-24 | 2018 | +9.5 | +61.5 | 28% | — |
| 3 | New Mexico State over Liberty 49–14 · on the road · 2022-11-26 | 2022 | +24 | +59.0 | 7% | — |
| 4 | Iowa State over Texas Tech 66–10 · at home · 2016-11-19 | 2016 | +3 | +59.0 | 43% | — |
| 5 | Georgia Southern over South Alabama 52–0 · at home · 2017-11-18 | 2017 | +6 | +58.0 | 35% | — |
| 6 | #18Utah over #13Oregon 62–20 · on the road · 2015-09-27 | 2015 | +14 | +56.0 | 19% | 5 |
| 7 | Nevada over San José State 55–10 · at home · 2025-11-15 | 2025 | +9.5 | +54.5 | 28% | — |
| 8 | Hawai'i over Nevada 54–3 · on the road · 2019-09-29 | 2019 | +2 | +53.0 | 45% | — |
| 9 | Georgia Southern over Troy 42–10 · at home · 2014-10-30 | 2014 | +20.5 | +52.5 | 10% | — |
| 10 | McNeese over South Florida 53–21 · on the road · 2013-08-31 | 2013 | +20.5 | +52.5 | 10% | — |
| 11 | Syracuse over Duke 49–6 · on the road · 2019-11-16 | 2019 | +9 | +52.0 | 29% | — |
| 12 | Iowa over #3Ohio State 55–24 · at home · 2017-11-04 | 2017 | +21 | +52.0 | 9% | 27 |
| 13 | California over #8Washington State 37–3 · at home · 2017-10-14 | 2017 | +16.5 | +50.5 | 15% | 22 |
| 14 | Arkansas State over Texas State 77–31 · at home · 2023-11-18 | 2023 | +3.2 | +49.2 | 42% | — |
| 15 | South Florida over Syracuse 45–0 · neutral site · 2023-12-22 | 2023 | +4.2 | +49.2 | 40% | — |
| 16 | TCU over #13Baylor 62–22 · on the road · 2016-11-05 | 2016 | +9 | +49.0 | 29% | 17 |
| 17 | Georgia State over Georgia Southern 34–7 · on the road · 2015-12-05 | 2015 | +22 | +49.0 | 8% | — |
| 18 | Southern Miss over UAB 62–27 · on the road · 2013-11-30 | 2013 | +13.5 | +48.5 | 20% | — |
| 19 | San Diego State over California 34–0 · at home · 2025-09-21 | 2025 | +14 | +48.0 | 19% | — |
| 20 | Florida Atlantic over Tulsa 63–16 · on the road · 2024-11-30 | 2024 | +1 | +48.0 | 48% | — |
| 21 | Charlotte over Rice 56–23 · on the road · 2022-10-29 | 2022 | +15 | +48.0 | 17% | — |
| 22 | Howard over UNLV 43–40 · on the road · 2017-09-03 | 2017 | +45 | +48.0 | 0.3% | — |
| 23 | Utah State over Hawai'i 55–10 · at home · 2024-11-16 | 2024 | +2.5 | +47.5 | 44% | — |
| 24 | South Carolina over #5Tennessee 63–38 · at home · 2022-11-20 | 2022 | +22.5 | +47.5 | 8% | 25 |
| 25 | #10Louisville over #2Florida State 63–20 · at home · 2016-09-17 | 2016 | +4.5 | +47.5 | 39% | 8 |
| 26 | Liberty over Old Dominion 52–10 · at home · 2018-09-01 | 2018 | +5.2 | +47.2 | 37% | — |
| 27 | New Mexico State over Auburn 31–10 · on the road · 2023-11-18 | 2023 | +25 | +46.0 | 6% | — |
| 28 | SMU over #11Houston 38–16 · at home · 2016-10-22 | 2016 | +24 | +46.0 | 7% | 19 |
| 29 | Massachusetts over Rutgers 37–21 · on the road · 2026-09-03 | 2026 | +29.5 | +45.5 | 3% | — |
| 30 | Arizona over #19Washington State 44–6 · on the road · 2023-10-14 | 2023 | +7.5 | +45.5 | 32% | 11 |
| 31 | Houston over East Carolina 42–3 · on the road · 2022-11-19 | 2022 | +6 | +45.0 | 35% | — |
| 32 | Louisiana Tech over SMU 51–10 · neutral site · 2017-12-21 | 2017 | +4 | +45.0 | 40% | — |
| 33 | App State over Troy 53–14 · on the road · 2014-10-18 | 2014 | +6 | +45.0 | 35% | — |
| 34 | Oklahoma State over Baylor 49–17 · at home · 2013-11-24 | 2013 | +13 | +45.0 | 21% | — |
| 35 | Florida Atlantic over South Florida 56–14 · on the road · 2023-10-14 | 2023 | +2.5 | +44.5 | 44% | — |
| 36 | UCF over #15Oklahoma State 45–3 · at home · 2023-11-11 | 2023 | +2.5 | +44.5 | 44% | 15 |
| 37 | Colorado State over San Diego State 63–31 · on the road · 2016-11-27 | 2016 | +12.5 | +44.5 | 22% | — |
| 38 | Houston over Rutgers 49–14 · on the road · 2013-10-26 | 2013 | +9.5 | +44.5 | 28% | — |
| 39 | Kansas over Boston College 48–24 · on the road · 2019-09-13 | 2019 | +20.2 | +44.2 | 10% | — |
| 40 | Rice over #15Marshall 20–0 · on the road · 2020-12-05 | 2020 | +24 | +44.0 | 7% | 15 |
| 41 | New Mexico over UNLV 50–14 · on the road · 2018-10-06 | 2018 | +8 | +44.0 | 31% | — |
| 42 | Louisiana Tech over Louisiana 48–20 · on the road · 2014-09-06 | 2014 | +16 | +44.0 | 16% | — |
| 43 | South Carolina over Florida 40–17 · at home · 2021-11-06 | 2021 | +20.5 | +43.5 | 10% | — |
| 44 | Maryland over Penn State 35–19 · on the road · 2020-11-07 | 2020 | +27.5 | +43.5 | 4% | — |
| 45 | UTEP over UTSA 34–0 · on the road · 2014-10-25 | 2014 | +9.5 | +43.5 | 28% | — |
| 46 | Arizona over Oregon 42–16 · at home · 2013-11-23 | 2013 | +17.5 | +43.5 | 14% | — |
| 47 | Mississippi State over Ole Miss 55–20 · on the road · 2016-11-26 | 2016 | +8 | +43.0 | 31% | — |
| 48 | Louisville over Kentucky 41–0 · at home · 2025-11-29 | 2025 | +1.5 | +42.5 | 46% | — |
| 49 | Old Dominion over #13Virginia Tech 49–35 · at home · 2018-09-22 | 2018 | +28.5 | +42.5 | 4% | 17 |
| 50 | Akron over Marshall 65–38 · on the road · 2016-09-17 | 2016 | +15.5 | +42.5 | 17% | — |
| 51 | Nevada over UNLV 45–10 · on the road · 2016-11-26 | 2016 | +7 | +42.0 | 33% | — |
| 52 | Southern Utah over South Alabama 22–21 · neutral site · 2013-08-29 | 2013 | +41 | +42.0 | 0.5% | — |
| 53 | South Alabama over App State 48–14 · on the road · 2024-09-19 | 2024 | +7.5 | +41.5 | 32% | — |
| 54 | Akron over Northern Illinois 44–12 · on the road · 2022-11-26 | 2022 | +9.5 | +41.5 | 28% | — |
| 55 | Rutgers over Indiana 38–3 · on the road · 2021-11-13 | 2021 | +6.5 | +41.5 | 34% | — |
| 56 | Purdue over #2Ohio State 49–20 · at home · 2018-10-20 | 2018 | +12.5 | +41.5 | 22% | 28 |
| 57 | Tulsa over Houston 45–17 · at home · 2017-10-14 | 2017 | +13.5 | +41.5 | 20% | — |
| 58 | East Tennessee State over Vanderbilt 23–3 · on the road · 2021-09-05 | 2021 | +21 | +41.0 | 9% | — |
| 59 | Minnesota over Purdue 41–10 · at home · 2018-11-10 | 2018 | +10 | +41.0 | 27% | — |
| 60 | New Mexico over UCLA 35–10 · on the road · 2025-09-13 | 2025 | +15.5 | +40.5 | 17% | — |
| 61 | Fresno State over Boise State 30–7 · on the road · 2025-11-01 | 2025 | +17.5 | +40.5 | 14% | — |
| 62 | Charlotte over East Carolina 55–24 · at home · 2024-10-05 | 2024 | +9.5 | +40.5 | 28% | — |
| 63 | Auburn over Arkansas 48–10 · on the road · 2023-11-11 | 2023 | +2.5 | +40.5 | 44% | — |
| 64 | Tennessee over Missouri 62–24 · on the road · 2021-10-02 | 2021 | +2.5 | +40.5 | 44% | — |
| 65 | Fresno State over New Mexico 38–0 · at home · 2017-10-15 | 2017 | +2.5 | +40.5 | 44% | — |
| 66 | Arkansas State over #25Troy 35–3 · on the road · 2016-11-18 | 2016 | +8.5 | +40.5 | 30% | 5 |
| 67 | South Florida over Cincinnati 65–27 · at home · 2015-11-21 | 2015 | +2.5 | +40.5 | 44% | — |
| 68 | Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech 58–24 · on the road · 2015-11-28 | 2015 | +6.5 | +40.5 | 34% | — |
| 69 | Bowling Green over Toledo 20–7 · at home · 2019-10-12 | 2019 | +27 | +40.0 | 5% | — |
| 70 | App State over Toledo 34–0 · neutral site · 2017-12-24 | 2017 | +6 | +40.0 | 35% | — |
| 71 | Eastern Illinois over San Diego State 40–19 · on the road · 2013-09-01 | 2013 | +19 | +40.0 | 12% | — |
| 72 | Florida International over Central Michigan 52–16 · neutral site · 2024-09-07 | 2024 | +3.5 | +39.5 | 41% | — |
| 73 | Colorado over UCF 48–21 · on the road · 2024-09-28 | 2024 | +12.5 | +39.5 | 22% | — |
| 74 | Middle Tennessee over #25Miami 45–31 · on the road · 2022-09-24 | 2022 | +25.5 | +39.5 | 6% | 5 |
| 75 | Old Dominion over Coastal Carolina 49–21 · on the road · 2022-10-15 | 2022 | +11.5 | +39.5 | 24% | — |
| 76 | Utah State over #19San Diego State 46–13 · on the road · 2021-12-04 | 2021 | +6.5 | +39.5 | 34% | 11 |
| 77 | Air Force over Navy 40–7 · at home · 2020-10-03 | 2020 | +6.5 | +39.5 | 34% | — |
| 78 | Pittsburgh over Virginia Tech 47–14 · at home · 2020-11-21 | 2020 | +6.5 | +39.5 | 34% | — |
| 79 | UNLV over Vanderbilt 34–10 · on the road · 2019-10-12 | 2019 | +15.5 | +39.5 | 17% | — |
| 80 | Central Michigan over Northern Illinois 48–10 · at home · 2019-11-02 | 2019 | +1.5 | +39.5 | 46% | — |
| 81 | #20North Carolina over #9Miami 62–26 · on the road · 2020-12-12 | 2020 | +3 | +39.0 | 43% | 11 |
| 82 | UTSA over Middle Tennessee 45–25 · on the road · 2016-11-05 | 2016 | +19 | +39.0 | 12% | — |
| 83 | Western Michigan over Ohio 49–14 · on the road · 2015-10-17 | 2015 | +4 | +39.0 | 40% | — |
| 84 | San Diego State over Utah State 48–14 · at home · 2015-10-24 | 2015 | +5 | +39.0 | 38% | — |
| 85 | Marshall over Old Dominion 48–24 · at home · 2025-10-11 | 2025 | +14.5 | +38.5 | 18% | — |
| 86 | Hawai'i over San Diego State 38–6 · at home · 2025-11-09 | 2025 | +6.5 | +38.5 | 34% | — |
| 87 | Houston over Tulsa 45–10 · on the road · 2021-10-01 | 2021 | +3.5 | +38.5 | 41% | — |
| 88 | Texas Tech over #15Oklahoma State 41–17 · on the road · 2018-09-22 | 2018 | +14.5 | +38.5 | 18% | 15 |
| 89 | Washington State over #15Stanford 42–16 · on the road · 2016-10-09 | 2016 | +12.5 | +38.5 | 22% | 15 |
| 90 | Georgia Southern over Bowling Green 58–27 · neutral site · 2015-12-24 | 2015 | +7.5 | +38.5 | 32% | — |
| 91 | BYU over Texas 41–7 · on the road · 2014-09-06 | 2014 | +4.5 | +38.5 | 39% | — |
| 92 | Wyoming over Fresno State 45–17 · on the road · 2014-11-02 | 2014 | +10.5 | +38.5 | 26% | — |
| 93 | Illinois over Cincinnati 45–17 · at home · 2013-09-07 | 2013 | +10.5 | +38.5 | 26% | — |
| 94 | Northwestern over Maryland 37–10 · on the road · 2024-10-12 | 2024 | +11 | +38.0 | 25% | — |
| 95 | Texas State over Baylor 42–31 · on the road · 2023-09-02 | 2023 | +27 | +38.0 | 5% | — |
| 96 | Army over #17Air Force 23–3 · neutral site · 2023-11-04 | 2023 | +18 | +38.0 | 13% | 13 |
| 97 | #5Oklahoma over #8Florida 55–20 · neutral site · 2020-12-31 | 2020 | +3 | +38.0 | 43% | — |
| 98 | Boston College over Florida State 35–3 · at home · 2017-10-28 | 2017 | +6 | +38.0 | 35% | — |
| 99 | Bowling Green over Kent State 42–7 · at home · 2016-11-16 | 2016 | +3 | +38.0 | 43% | — |
| 100 | Ohio over Miami (OH) 38–3 · neutral site · 2024-12-07 | 2024 | +2.5 | +37.5 | 44% | — |
What limits this archive
Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.
The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.
Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.