Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsPITT
- Q4 2:39PITTA.J. Davis 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)14–47
- Q3 0:20PITTKenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)14–40
- Q3 8:43PITTDJ Turner 64 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)14–33
- Q3 12:25PITTAlex Kessman 53 Yd Field Goal 14–26
- Q2 1:29PITTJaylon Barden 11 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)14–23
- Q2 3:36VTTre Turner 7 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)14–16
- Q2 5:33PITTVincent Davis 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)7–16
- Q2 8:13VTTre Turner 55 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)7–9
- Q2 13:39PITTAlex Kessman 52 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 3:38PITTAlex Kessman 30 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:44PITTAlex Kessman 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassHendon Hooker 13/22, 260 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKhalil Herbert 9 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecTre Turner 3 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKenny Pickett 35/52, 404 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushA.J. Davis 12 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDJ Turner 15 REC, 184 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:33PITT +26%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
- Q2 8:13VT +23%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 55 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
- Q2 1:29PITT +23%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
- Q2 3:36VT +22%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q3 12:25PITT +14%
Alex Kessman 53 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:43PITT +11%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh?
Virginia Tech 14, Pittsburgh 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 434 | Total yards | 556 |
| 278 | Passing yards | 404 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 17 | First downs | 30 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/26 | Comp/Att | 35/52 |
| 10.7 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 9-80 |
| 24:02 | Possession | 35:58 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:24 PITT punt on 4th & 1 at PITT 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:39PITTA.J. Davis 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)14–47
- Q3 0:20PITTKenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)14–40
- Q3 8:43PITTDJ Turner 64 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)14–33
- Q3 12:25PITTAlex Kessman 53 Yd Field Goal 14–26
- Q2 1:29PITTJaylon Barden 11 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)14–23
- Q2 3:36VTTre Turner 7 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)14–16
- Q2 5:33PITTVincent Davis 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)7–16
- Q2 8:13VTTre Turner 55 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)7–9
- Q2 13:39PITTAlex Kessman 52 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 3:38PITTAlex Kessman 30 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:44PITTAlex Kessman 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1472, VT Elo 1645 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT +4.5 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #63 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 12–11 · 35% have been one-possession games
| VT | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 (#43) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#51) |
| +10 / +4 | offense / defense | -5 / -8 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.57 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →