Texas State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 1:39TXSTMalik Hornsby 14 Yd Run (Kole Wilson Pass to Drew Donley for Two-Point Conversion)50–36
- Q4 6:16USMFrank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)42–36
- Q4 10:52USMBilly Wiles 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)42–29
- Q4 12:31USMJakarius Caston 8 Yd pass from Billy Wiles (Andrew Stein Kick)42–23
- Q3 12:28USMTiaquelin Mims 11 Yd pass from Billy Wiles (Andrew Stein PAT blocked)42–16
- Q2 3:22TXSTIsmail Mahdi 8 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)42–10
- Q2 7:40TXSTIsmail Mahdi 23 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)35–10
- Q2 12:13USMFrank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)28–10
- Q1 0:39TXSTJoey Hobert 5 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)28–3
- Q1 1:16USMAndrew Stein 38 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q1 6:57TXSTIsmail Mahdi 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)21–0
- Q1 11:48TXSTKole Wilson 5 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:46TXSTIsmail Mahdi 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTJ Finley 19/24, 338 YDS, 2 TD
- RushIsmail Mahdi 14 CAR, 89 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJoey Hobert 10 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBilly Wiles 21/43, 275 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushFrank Gore Jr. 24 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLatreal Jones 6 REC, 124 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 727 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:16USM +15%
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)
- Q1 11:48TXST +11%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q4 6:16TXST +11%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27
- Q4 3:12USM +8%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete
- Q1 6:57TXST +8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q4 1:57TXST +6%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the USM 15
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Southern Miss?
Texas State 50, Southern Miss 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| TXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 516 | Total yards | 510 |
| 338 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 235 |
| 22 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 10-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 19/24 | Comp/Att | 21/44 |
| 14.1 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-87 | Penalties | 7-30 |
| 23:22 | Possession | 36:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:55 USM go for it on 4th & 13 at TXST 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:39TXSTMalik Hornsby 14 Yd Run (Kole Wilson Pass to Drew Donley for Two-Point Conversion)50–36
- Q4 6:16USMFrank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)42–36
- Q4 10:52USMBilly Wiles 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)42–29
- Q4 12:31USMJakarius Caston 8 Yd pass from Billy Wiles (Andrew Stein Kick)42–23
- Q3 12:28USMTiaquelin Mims 11 Yd pass from Billy Wiles (Andrew Stein PAT blocked)42–16
- Q2 3:22TXSTIsmail Mahdi 8 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)42–10
- Q2 7:40TXSTIsmail Mahdi 23 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)35–10
- Q2 12:13USMFrank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)28–10
- Q1 0:39TXSTJoey Hobert 5 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)28–3
- Q1 1:16USMAndrew Stein 38 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q1 6:57TXSTIsmail Mahdi 3 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)21–0
- Q1 11:48TXSTKole Wilson 5 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:46TXSTIsmail Mahdi 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1235, TXST Elo 1363 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +2.7 (44% to win) — 3.3 points clear of USM's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0 (#67) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#113) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -9 / +7 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 1.53 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →