Long Island University vs. Duquesne: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Long Island University0-1

0021

Duquesne0-2

▸0047

Final

Arthur J. Rooney Athletic FieldConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
LONG	0	7	7	7	21
DUQU	19	14	7	7	47

LONGTeam statsDUQU

312Total yards467

172Pass219

140Rush248

11First downs26

1-93rd down10-15

1Turnovers1

20:39Possession39:21

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:03LONGCory Nichols 1 Yd Run (Michael Coney Kick)21–47
• Q4 11:40DUQUJohn Erby 11 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Andrew Smith Kick)14–47
• Q3 5:31LONGEvan Brooks 11 Yd pass from Ethan Greenwood (Michael Coney Kick)14–40
• Q3 12:55DUQUTedy Afful 44 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Andrew Smith Kick)7–40
• Q2 1:06DUQUJoey Isabella 19 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Andrew Smith Kick)7–33
• Q2 6:55LONGMichael Love 67 Yd pass from Ethan Greenwood (Michael Coney Kick)7–26
• Q2 7:38DUQUDaniel Tarabrella 1 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Smith Kick)0–26
• Q1 0:38DUQUJoey Isabella 45 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz PAT failed)0–19
• Q1 5:20DUQUDarius Perrantes 9 Yd Run (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)0–13
• Q1 11:03DUQUTedy Afful 18 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz PAT blocked)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

DUQU −4.5

Against the number

DUQU covered

line DUQU −4.5

What the numbers say

• LONG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUQU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 7.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DUQU 100%50%LONG 100%

Kickoff128 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DUQU (top)LONG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DUQU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DUQU −4.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

LONG 21 – 47 DUQU

Leaders

Long Island University

• PassEthan Greenwood 9/17, 179 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushPatrick Bowen 4 CAR, 52 YDS
• RecEvan Brooks 2 REC, 27 YDS, 1 TD

Duquesne

• PassDarius Perrantes 15/23, 211 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
• RushJaMario Clements 20 CAR, 147 YDS
• RecJoey Isabella 6 REC, 94 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

119

Points / snap

0.57

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DUQU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 729 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

DUQU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTulane vs Nicholls36-7WTexas State vs Southern Miss50-36WMontana State vs Cal Poly59-19WMonmouth vs Maine51-24WPresbyterian vs Marist42-23

Fourth downs

11 calls

LONG gave up 1.6 points to the model on fourth down.LONG 5/8 · DUQU 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Long Island University vs. Duquesne?

Long Island University 21, Duquesne 47.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (DUQU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LONG

DUQU

33%

Success rate

45%

0.32

EPA / pass

1.01

0.14

EPA / rush

0.05

35%

Early-down success

38%

33%

Pass success

56%

33%

Rush success

39%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

14%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

56%

Pass rate

35%

10.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.0

LONG

10.3 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

DUQU

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LONG		DUQU
312	Total yards	467
172	Passing yards	219
140	Rushing yards	248
11	First downs	26
1-9	3rd down	10-15
2-3	4th down	2-2
11/23	Comp/Att	16/24
7.5	Yards per pass	9.1
6.4	Yards per rush	5.3
1	Turnovers	1
3-35	Penalties	3-25
20:39	Possession	39:21

Fourth downs

11 calls

LONG

5/8 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

DUQU

2/3 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 8:30 LONG go for it on 4th & 12 at DUQU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LONG 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →DUQU 7/10 scoring drives

LONGDOWNS8 pl, 21 yds· own 31Q1

DUQUTD8 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUTD7 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 35Q1

DUQUTD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 48Q2

LONGPUNT4 pl, -5 yds· own 11Q2

DUQUTD4 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q2

LONGTD2 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

DUQUTD11 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

LONGUncateg6 pl, 77 yds· own 19Q2

LONGINT3 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3

DUQUTD3 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q3

LONGPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 21Q3

DUQUINT5 pl, 13 yds· own 28Q3

LONGTD7 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q3

DUQUTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

LONGTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

DUQUUncateg10 pl, 28 yds· opp 47Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:03LONGCory Nichols 1 Yd Run (Michael Coney Kick)21–47
• Q4 11:40DUQUJohn Erby 11 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Andrew Smith Kick)14–47
• Q3 5:31LONGEvan Brooks 11 Yd pass from Ethan Greenwood (Michael Coney Kick)14–40
• Q3 12:55DUQUTedy Afful 44 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Andrew Smith Kick)7–40
• Q2 1:06DUQUJoey Isabella 19 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Andrew Smith Kick)7–33
• Q2 6:55LONGMichael Love 67 Yd pass from Ethan Greenwood (Michael Coney Kick)7–26
• Q2 7:38DUQUDaniel Tarabrella 1 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Smith Kick)0–26
• Q1 0:38DUQUJoey Isabella 45 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz PAT failed)0–19
• Q1 5:20DUQUDarius Perrantes 9 Yd Run (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)0–13
• Q1 11:03DUQUTedy Afful 18 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz PAT blocked)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →