San José State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsNEV
- Q4 1:10NEVKy Woods 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Joe McFadden Kick)10–55
- Q4 1:23SJSUTama Amisone 12 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)10–48
- Q4 4:37NEVJoe McFadden 26 Yd Field Goal 3–48
- Q4 10:57NEVDominic Kelley 5 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)3–45
- Q3 2:53NEVCaleb Ramseur 11 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)3–38
- Q3 8:12SJSUMathias Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 0:01NEVJoe McFadden 50 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 10:49NEVChubba Purdy 13 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–28
- Q2 12:21NEVCaleb Ramseur 30 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:20NEVChubba Purdy 7 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:24NEVNakian Jackson 66 Yd Interception Return (Joe McFadden Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassWalker Eget 11/23, 74 YDS, 3 INT
- RushSteve Chavez-Soto 8 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecKyri Shoels 3 REC, 47 YDS
- PassCarter Jones 16/19, 195 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCaleb Ramseur 20 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDakota Thomas 6 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:21NEV +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 10:49NEV +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:25SJSU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SJSU23 (#19 S.Cook)
- Q1 6:20NEV +17%
Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #13 C.Purdy caught at SJSU10, for 7 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:39SJSU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass complete short left to #85 J.Canaan caught at SJSU15, for 12 yards to the SJSU25 (#1 A.Odums), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:37NEV +12%
#84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Nevada?
San José State 10, Nevada 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SJSU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 270 | Total yards | 413 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 195 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 218 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/32 | Comp/Att | 16/19 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-64 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 22:35 | Possession | 37:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:24 NEV punt on 4th & 1 at NEV 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10NEVKy Woods 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Joe McFadden Kick)10–55
- Q4 1:23SJSUTama Amisone 12 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)10–48
- Q4 4:37NEVJoe McFadden 26 Yd Field Goal 3–48
- Q4 10:57NEVDominic Kelley 5 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)3–45
- Q3 2:53NEVCaleb Ramseur 11 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)3–38
- Q3 8:12SJSUMathias Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 0:01NEVJoe McFadden 50 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 10:49NEVChubba Purdy 13 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–28
- Q2 12:21NEVCaleb Ramseur 30 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:20NEVChubba Purdy 7 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:24NEVNakian Jackson 66 Yd Interception Return (Joe McFadden Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1105, SJSU Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +9 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #43 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Nevada leads 21–8 · 38% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#78) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#110) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →