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Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Nevada over San José State
55–10 · at home · 2025-11-15
+9.5+54.528%
2San Diego State over California
34–0 · at home · 2025-09-21
+14+48.019%
3Louisville over Kentucky
41–0 · at home · 2025-11-29
+1.5+42.546%
4New Mexico over UCLA
35–10 · on the road · 2025-09-13
+15.5+40.517%
5Fresno State over Boise State
30–7 · on the road · 2025-11-01
+17.5+40.514%
6Marshall over Old Dominion
48–24 · at home · 2025-10-11
+14.5+38.518%
7Hawai'i over San Diego State
38–6 · at home · 2025-11-09
+6.5+38.534%
8UTSA over East Carolina
58–24 · at home · 2025-11-22
+2+36.045%
9Austin Peay over Middle Tennessee
34–14 · on the road · 2025-08-30
+15.5+35.517%
10Kentucky over Florida
38–7 · at home · 2025-11-09
+4.5+35.539%
11Colorado State over Fresno State
49–21 · at home · 2025-10-11
+5.5+33.537%
12South Florida over #25Boise State
34–7 · at home · 2025-08-28
+5.5+32.537%
13Coastal Carolina over South Alabama
38–20 · on the road · 2025-09-20
+14.5+32.518%
14Kennesaw State over Louisiana Tech
35–7 · at home · 2025-10-09
+4.5+32.539%
15UCLA over Michigan State
38–13 · on the road · 2025-10-11
+7+32.033%
16Syracuse over Clemson
34–21 · on the road · 2025-09-20
+17.5+30.514%
17UAB over #22Memphis
31–24 · at home · 2025-10-18
+23.5+30.57%
18Texas State over Southern Miss
41–14 · on the road · 2025-11-15
+3+30.043%
19UCLA over #7Penn State
42–37 · at home · 2025-10-04
+24.5+29.56%
20#24South Florida over North Texas
63–36 · on the road · 2025-10-10
+2.5+29.544%
21New Mexico State over Sam Houston
37–10 · at home · 2025-10-03
+2+29.045%
22Florida International over Western Kentucky
25–6 · on the road · 2025-10-15
+10+29.027%
23Kansas State over Kansas
42–17 · on the road · 2025-10-25
+3.5+28.541%
24UTSA over Tulane
48–26 · at home · 2025-10-30
+6+28.035%
25Florida State over #8Alabama
31–17 · at home · 2025-08-30
+13.5+27.520%
26#17Texas Tech over #16Utah
34–10 · on the road · 2025-09-20
+3.5+27.541%
27Maryland over Wisconsin
27–10 · on the road · 2025-09-20
+10.5+27.526%
28Buffalo over Bowling Green
28–3 · on the road · 2025-11-01
+2.5+27.544%
29Florida International over Middle Tennessee
56–30 · on the road · 2025-11-08
+1.5+27.546%
30Long Island University over Eastern Michigan
28–23 · on the road · 2025-09-06
+22+27.08%
31Vanderbilt over #11South Carolina
31–7 · on the road · 2025-09-13
+3+27.043%
32Vanderbilt over Virginia Tech
44–20 · on the road · 2025-09-06
+2+26.045%
33Delaware over Florida International
38–16 · on the road · 2025-09-20
+4+26.040%
34Wisconsin over Illinois
27–10 · at home · 2025-11-23
+8.5+25.530%
35Stanford over California
31–10 · at home · 2025-11-23
+4.5+25.539%
36Minnesota over #25Nebraska
24–6 · at home · 2025-10-18
+7+25.033%
37Sam Houston over Oregon State
21–17 · on the road · 2025-11-09
+21+25.09%
38Old Dominion over Virginia Tech
45–26 · on the road · 2025-09-13
+5.5+24.537%
39Stanford over Florida State
20–13 · at home · 2025-10-19
+17.5+24.514%
40#7Oregon over #23Texas Tech
23–0 · neutral site · 2026-01-01
+1.5+24.546%
41Stanford over Boston College
30–20 · at home · 2025-09-14
+14+24.019%
42Central Michigan over Bowling Green
27–6 · on the road · 2025-10-18
+3+24.043%
43Coastal Carolina over Marshall
44–27 · at home · 2025-10-30
+7+24.033%
44#12Vanderbilt over #18Tennessee
45–24 · on the road · 2025-11-29
+2.5+23.544%
45Utah State over Air Force
49–30 · at home · 2025-09-14
+4+23.040%
46West Virginia over #22Houston
45–35 · on the road · 2025-11-01
+13+23.021%
47Washington State over Toledo
28–7 · at home · 2025-10-25
+1.5+22.546%
48#20Virginia over Duke
34–17 · on the road · 2025-11-15
+5.5+22.537%
49Washington State over Colorado State
20–3 · on the road · 2025-09-27
+4.5+21.539%
50Northwestern over Penn State
22–21 · on the road · 2025-10-11
+20.5+21.510%
51California over #14Louisville
29–26 · on the road · 2025-11-09
+18.5+21.512%
52South Florida over #13Florida
18–16 · on the road · 2025-09-06
+18.5+20.512%
53Arkansas State over Troy
23–10 · on the road · 2025-11-02
+7.5+20.532%
54Florida over Florida State
40–21 · at home · 2025-11-29
+1.5+20.546%
55Ball State over Ohio
20–14 · at home · 2025-10-04
+14+20.019%
56Army over Kansas State
24–21 · on the road · 2025-09-06
+16.8+19.815%
57East Carolina over Pittsburgh
23–17 · neutral site · 2025-12-27
+12.5+18.522%
58Kentucky over Auburn
10–3 · on the road · 2025-11-01
+11.5+18.524%
59Coastal Carolina over App State
45–37 · on the road · 2025-10-18
+10.5+18.526%
60Akron over Buffalo
24–16 · on the road · 2025-10-25
+10+18.027%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.