Akron vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsBUF
- Q4 6:04BUFJack Howes 35 Yd Field Goal 24–16
- Q4 11:46AKRBen Finley 38 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm Kick)24–13
- Q3 4:54AKRConner Cravaack 5 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)17–13
- Q3 7:17BUFJack Howes 21 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 10:57AKRKyan Mason 9 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:09BUFPatrick Clacks III 1 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Marcus Velez for Two-Point Conversion)3–10
- Q1 3:44BUFJonathan Capo Safety3–2
- Q1 9:37AKRMatthew Schramm 44 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassBen Finley 17/32, 230 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Gant 25 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecMarcel Williams 6 REC, 74 YDS
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 23/36, 266 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 11 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecNik McMillan 8 REC, 177 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:46AKR +37%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley rush middle for 38 yards gain to the BUFF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:54AKR +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley pass complete short right to #85 C.Cravaack caught at BUFF03, for 5 yards to the BUFF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:22AKR +18%
#95 J.Castle punt 38 yards to the BUFF08 #0 V.Snow return 5 yards to the BUFF13 (#17 M.DeWalt IV), out of bounds
- Q4 2:44AKR +17%
PENALTY AKR Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUFF35 to BUFF40. NO PLAY
- Q2 0:09BUF +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #21 P.Clacks III caught at AKR00, for 1 yard to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN #19 M.Velez pass attempt Successful
- Q3 1:19AKR +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley pass incomplete deep left to #81 L.Sivon thrown to BUFF35 broken up by #3 O.Bridges, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BUFF Pass Interference (#7 S.Brow…
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Buffalo?
Akron 24, Buffalo 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total yards | 357 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 91 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 17/32 | Comp/Att | 23/36 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 7-48 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 30:22 | Possession | 29:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:55 AKR punt on 4th & 24 at BUF 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:04BUFJack Howes 35 Yd Field Goal 24–16
- Q4 11:46AKRBen Finley 38 Yd Run (Matthew Schramm Kick)24–13
- Q3 4:54AKRConner Cravaack 5 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)17–13
- Q3 7:17BUFJack Howes 21 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 10:57AKRKyan Mason 9 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)10–10
- Q2 0:09BUFPatrick Clacks III 1 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Marcus Velez for Two-Point Conversion)3–10
- Q1 3:44BUFJonathan Capo Safety3–2
- Q1 9:37AKRMatthew Schramm 44 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1356, AKR Elo 991 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -17 (87% to win) — 7.0 points clear of BUF's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #38 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Buffalo leads 13–12 · 36% have been one-possession games
| AKR | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.3 (#128) | CORE overall | -19.7 (#124) |
| -13 / +8 | offense / defense | -15 / +5 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →