Toledo vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsWSU
- Q4 2:21WSUKirby Vorhees 6 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:13TOLJunior Vandeross III 24 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:51WSUCarter Pabst 35 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)0–21
- Q2 4:00WSUTony Freeman 15 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)0–14
- Q2 12:07WSUZevi Eckhaus 7 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTucker Gleason 26/41, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKenji Christian 11 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecJacob Petersen 5 REC, 58 YDS
- PassZevi Eckhaus 10/22, 159 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushZevi Eckhaus 15 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoshua Meredith 4 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:00WSU +25%
Shotgun #4 Z.Eckhaus pass complete short middle to #0 T.Freeman caught at TOL00, for 15 yards to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pa…
- Q2 12:07WSU +24%
Shotgun #4 Z.Eckhaus rush left for 7 yards gain to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:51WSU +15%
Shotgun #4 Z.Eckhaus pass complete deep right to #21 C.Pabst caught at TOL01, for 35 yards to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:13TOL +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short middle to #2 J.Vandeross III caught at WSU05, for 24 yards to the WSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 6:31WSU +6%
#98 R.Harris punt 47 yards to the TOL21 fair catch by #12 B.Hammer at TOL21
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Washington State?
Toledo 7, Washington State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 299 | Total yards | 321 |
| 238 | Passing yards | 159 |
| 61 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 15 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/42 | Comp/Att | 10/22 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 27:27 | Possession | 32:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:53 TOL punt on 4th & 21 at WSU 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:21WSUKirby Vorhees 6 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:13TOLJunior Vandeross III 24 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:51WSUCarter Pabst 35 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)0–21
- Q2 4:00WSUTony Freeman 15 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Jack Stevens Kick)0–14
- Q2 12:07WSUZevi Eckhaus 7 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1364, TOL Elo 1579 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU +6.2 (35% to win) — 4.7 points clear of TOL's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #110 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| TOL | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | +10.0 (#40) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | +3 / -7 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 1.86 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →