Florida International vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsWKU
- Q3 2:03FIUKejon Owens 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–6
- Q2 0:00WKUJack Cassidy 55 Yd Field Goal 19–6
- Q2 2:57FIUNoah Grant 51 Yd Field Goal 19–3
- Q2 7:57FIUJackson Verdugo 8 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)16–3
- Q2 14:56FIUNoah Grant 37 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 3:03WKUJohn Cannon 28 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 7:37FIUNoah Grant 28 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 12:37FIUNoah Grant 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassKeyone Jenkins 17/25, 184 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKejon Owens 22 CAR, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Perry 3 REC, 86 YDS
- PassMaverick McIvor 20/31, 159 YDS, 3 INT
- RushMarvis Parrish 9 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecMatthew Henry 2 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:57FIU +21%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK)
- Q2 0:00WKU +11%
Jack Cassidy 55 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 7:37FIU +9%
Noah Grant 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 14:56FIU +9%
Noah Grant 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:55FIU +9%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Fournet,Ross) 5 yards from WKU48 to FIU47. NO PLAY
- Q2 2:57FIU +8%
Noah Grant 51 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Western Kentucky?
Florida International 25, Western Kentucky 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 453 | Total yards | 341 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 225 |
| 249 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 27/41 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 5-53 |
| 34:38 | Possession | 25:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:42 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:03FIUKejon Owens 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–6
- Q2 0:00WKUJack Cassidy 55 Yd Field Goal 19–6
- Q2 2:57FIUNoah Grant 51 Yd Field Goal 19–3
- Q2 7:57FIUJackson Verdugo 8 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)16–3
- Q2 14:56FIUNoah Grant 37 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 3:03WKUJohn Cannon 28 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 7:37FIUNoah Grant 28 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 12:37FIUNoah Grant 37 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1424, FIU Elo 1216 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -10.7 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #37 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Western Kentucky leads 11–7 · 28% have been one-possession games
| FIU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#109) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#83) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -6 / +0 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.79 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →