San Diego vs. Davidson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
San Diego1-3
Davidson2-2
▸Final
Richardson StadiumConference game
SAN Team statsDAVI
471Total yards557
408Pass108
63Rush449
20First downs20
4-113rd down4-9
1Turnovers0
28:16Possession31:44
- Q4 1:13SAN Josh Heverly 39 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–55
- Q4 2:24DAVIAdam Zouagui 25 Yd Field Goal 27–55
- Q4 7:44SAN Ja'seem Reed 12 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Grant Sergent Pass to Ja'seem Reed for Two-Point Conversion)27–52
- Q4 9:19DAVIMari Adams 66 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)19–52
- Q4 11:08DAVIWill Cox 4 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)19–45
- Q3 0:06DAVIMari Adams 4 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)19–38
- Q3 2:37SAN Aidan Lehman 38 Yd Field Goal 19–31
- Q3 5:49DAVIMason Sheron 78 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)16–31
- Q3 10:36DAVIMari Adams 38 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)16–24
- Q2 0:00SAN Aidan Lehman 33 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q2 8:50DAVIMason Sheron 3 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)13–17
- Q2 14:30SAN Isaiah Williams 1 Yd Run (Aidan Lehman Kick)13–10
- Q1 1:44DAVIAdam Zouagui 22 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q1 5:42SAN Josh Heverly 7 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman PAT failed)6–7
- Q1 9:00DAVIMari Adams 12 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
DAVI −6
Against the number
DAVI covered
line DAVI −6
Kickoff141 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
DAVI (top)SAN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DAVI 100%
Closing line
DAVI −6
Closing total
49.0
Model line
—
Actual result
SAN 33 – 55 DAVI
San Diego
- PassGrant Sergent 22/39, 408 YDS, 3 TD
- RushIsaiah Williams 13 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRe-al Mitchell 7 REC, 132 YDS
Davidson
- PassCoulter Cleland 11/13, 90 YDS
- RushMari Adams 14 CAR, 169 YDS, 4 TD
- RecKellyn West 4 REC, 32 YDS
28.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
125
Points / snap
0.70
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDAVI up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,040 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
DAVI went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego vs. Davidson?
San Diego 33, Davidson 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DAVI) was correct.
SAN
DAVI
42%
Success rate
53%
0.39
EPA / pass
0.16
0.40
EPA / rush
0.93
43%
Early-down success
53%
41%
Pass success
39%
43%
Rush success
60%
16%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
17%
10%
Stuffed rush rate
13%
69%
Pass rate
31%
7.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.3
SAN
7.9 yards to go on 3rd down
67 scrimmage snaps
DAVI
7.3 yards to go on 3rd down
58 scrimmage snaps
| SAN | DAVI | |
|---|---|---|
| 471 | Total yards | 557 |
| 408 | Passing yards | 108 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 449 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/39 | Comp/Att | 15/17 |
| 10.5 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 11.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-59 | Penalties | 2-26 |
| 28:16 | Possession | 31:44 |
SAN
6/7 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
DAVI
2/4 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 1:44 DAVI field goal on 4th & 4 at SAN 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSAN 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →DAVI 9/11 scoring drives
DAVITD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
SAN TD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
DAVIFG7 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1
SAN TD5 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
DAVITD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
SAN PUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 8Q2
DAVIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q2
SAN FG14 pl, 45 yds· own 40Q2
SAN FUM4 pl, -2 yds· own 38Q3
DAVITD3 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q3
SAN DOWNS8 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q3
DAVITD1 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3
SAN FG7 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q3
DAVITD7 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q3
SAN DOWNS4 pl, -2 yds· own 45Q4
DAVITD6 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q4
SAN PUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 28Q4
DAVITD2 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4
SAN TD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
DAVIFG8 pl, 34 yds· opp 42Q4
SAN TD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
DAVIEND2 pl, -1 yds· opp 41Q4
- Q4 1:13SAN Josh Heverly 39 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–55
- Q4 2:24DAVIAdam Zouagui 25 Yd Field Goal 27–55
- Q4 7:44SAN Ja'seem Reed 12 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Grant Sergent Pass to Ja'seem Reed for Two-Point Conversion)27–52
- Q4 9:19DAVIMari Adams 66 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)19–52
- Q4 11:08DAVIWill Cox 4 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)19–45
- Q3 0:06DAVIMari Adams 4 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)19–38
- Q3 2:37SAN Aidan Lehman 38 Yd Field Goal 19–31
- Q3 5:49DAVIMason Sheron 78 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)16–31
- Q3 10:36DAVIMari Adams 38 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)16–24
- Q2 0:00SAN Aidan Lehman 33 Yd Field Goal 16–17
- Q2 8:50DAVIMason Sheron 3 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)13–17
- Q2 14:30SAN Isaiah Williams 1 Yd Run (Aidan Lehman Kick)13–10
- Q1 1:44DAVIAdam Zouagui 22 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q1 5:42SAN Josh Heverly 7 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman PAT failed)6–7
- Q1 9:00DAVIMari Adams 12 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →