UCLA vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsORST
- Q4 14:31UCLACarson Steele 7 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)24–36
- Q3 4:24ORSTJack Velling 32 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)17–36
- Q3 7:07UCLATJ Harden 9 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)17–29
- Q3 9:12ORSTSilas Bolden 43 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–29
- Q2 0:48ORSTRyan Cooper Jr. 67 Yd Interception Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)10–23
- Q2 1:55ORSTAtticus Sappington 26 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 6:01UCLARJ Lopez 36 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 12:44UCLALogan Loya 10 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)7–13
- Q1 0:39ORSTJack Velling 10 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–13
- Q1 4:39ORSTAtticus Sappington 43 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:15ORSTAtticus Sappington 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDante Moore 14/33, 165 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushCarson Steele 22 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLogan Loya 5 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDJ Uiagalelei 14/24, 266 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDamien Martinez 15 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecSilas Bolden 5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,040 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:48ORST +14%
Ryan Cooper Jr. 67 Yd Interception Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)
- Q2 12:44UCLA +13%
Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 10 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
- Q1 0:39ORST +12%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 10 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
- Q2 6:01UCLA +8%
RJ Lopez 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 1:55ORST +8%
Atticus Sappington 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 10:15ORST +7%
Atticus Sappington 36 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. Oregon State?
UCLA 24, Oregon State 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORST) was correct.
| UCLA | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 453 | Total yards | 415 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 282 |
| 287 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 27 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/34 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-60 | Penalties | 11-95 |
| 30:15 | Possession | 29:45 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:24 UCLA go for it on 4th & 7 at ORST 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.38 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:31UCLACarson Steele 7 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)24–36
- Q3 4:24ORSTJack Velling 32 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)17–36
- Q3 7:07UCLATJ Harden 9 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)17–29
- Q3 9:12ORSTSilas Bolden 43 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–29
- Q2 0:48ORSTRyan Cooper Jr. 67 Yd Interception Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)10–23
- Q2 1:55ORSTAtticus Sappington 26 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 6:01UCLARJ Lopez 36 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 12:44UCLALogan Loya 10 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)7–13
- Q1 0:39ORSTJack Velling 10 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–13
- Q1 4:39ORSTAtticus Sappington 43 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:15ORSTAtticus Sappington 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1774, UCLA Elo 1687 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST -5.9 (66% to win) — 2.4 points clear of ORST's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUCLA leads 43–18–4 · Oregon State has won 2 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#34) | CORE overall | +16.5 (#19) |
| -5 / -15 | offense / defense | +12 / -4 |
| 1.92 | points / drive | 2.92 |
| 1.43 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →