Illinois vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsKU
- Q4 8:08ILLLuke Altmyer 6 Yd Run (Reggie Love III Pass to Luke Altmyer for Two-Point Conversion)23–34
- Q3 1:35ILLLuke Altmyer 72 Yd Run (Josh McCray Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–34
- Q3 3:46KUSeth Keller 30 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q3 13:14KUSeth Keller 41 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 0:05KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 1 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:41ILLTip Reiman 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Caleb Griffin Kick)7–21
- Q2 3:12KUDevin Neal 5 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:07KUJared Casey 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:20KUTorry Locklin 4 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassLuke Altmyer 19/28, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLuke Altmyer 13 CAR, 70 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaiah Williams 6 REC, 99 YDS
- PassJalon Daniels 21/29, 277 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDevin Neal 10 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLawrence Arnold 5 REC, 89 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,039 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:48ILL +13%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the ILL 28
- Q2 0:41ILL +13%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 4 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
- Q2 3:12KU +12%
Devin Neal run for 5 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q2 0:05KU +11%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q4 8:08ILL +7%
Luke Altmyer 6 Yd Run (Reggie Love III Pass to Luke Altmyer for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Kansas?
Illinois 23, Kansas 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ILL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total yards | 539 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 262 |
| 19 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 21/29 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-58 | Penalties | 4-34 |
| 23:21 | Possession | 36:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:43 ILL punt on 4th & 2 at ILL 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:08ILLLuke Altmyer 6 Yd Run (Reggie Love III Pass to Luke Altmyer for Two-Point Conversion)23–34
- Q3 1:35ILLLuke Altmyer 72 Yd Run (Josh McCray Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–34
- Q3 3:46KUSeth Keller 30 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q3 13:14KUSeth Keller 41 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 0:05KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 1 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:41ILLTip Reiman 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Caleb Griffin Kick)7–21
- Q2 3:12KUDevin Neal 5 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:07KUJared Casey 5 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:20KUTorry Locklin 4 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Seth Keller Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1415, ILL Elo 1664 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +7.6 (32% to win) — 11.1 points clear of ILL's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ILL | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#50) | CORE overall | +17.7 (#14) |
| +6 / +3 | offense / defense | +18 / +0 |
| 2.02 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →