UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsFAU
- Q4 2:32UTSARocko Griffin 6 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)36–10
- Q3 1:24UTSATeam Safety29–10
- Q3 8:16UTSATykee Ogle-Kellogg 42 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Chase Allen Kick)27–10
- Q2 0:00UTSAChase Allen 37 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 6:47UTSAWillie McCoy 10 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Chase Allen Kick)17–10
- Q2 11:51UTSAChase Allen 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 0:23FAULatrell Jean 11 Yd Interception Return (Logan Lupo Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:20FAULogan Lupo 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:43UTSARobert Henry 15 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassFrank Harris 26/35, 261 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushKevorian Barnes 10 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecDevin McCuin 5 REC, 64 YDS
- PassDaniel Richardson 19/34, 142 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLarry McCammon III 15 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecJe'Quan Burton 5 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,038 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:47UTSA +21%
Frank Harris pass complete to Willie McCoy for 10 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
- Q1 0:23FAU +20%
Latrell Jean 11 Yd Interception Return (Logan Lupo Kick)
- Q1 9:43UTSA +18%
Robert Henry run for 15 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
- Q3 8:16UTSA +11%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 42 yds for a TD Florida Atlantic Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Chase Allen KICK)
- Q2 11:51UTSA +9%
Chase Allen 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00UTSA +7%
Chase Allen 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic?
UTSA 36, Florida Atlantic 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
| UTSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 437 | Total yards | 162 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 142 |
| 176 | Rushing yards | 20 |
| 27 | First downs | 12 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 26/36 | Comp/Att | 19/34 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 0.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-59 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 35:33 | Possession | 24:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:40 UTSA punt on 4th & 1 at UTSA 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:32UTSARocko Griffin 6 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)36–10
- Q3 1:24UTSATeam Safety29–10
- Q3 8:16UTSATykee Ogle-Kellogg 42 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Chase Allen Kick)27–10
- Q2 0:00UTSAChase Allen 37 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 6:47UTSAWillie McCoy 10 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Chase Allen Kick)17–10
- Q2 11:51UTSAChase Allen 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 0:23FAULatrell Jean 11 Yd Interception Return (Logan Lupo Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:20FAULogan Lupo 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:43UTSARobert Henry 15 Yd Run (Chase Allen Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1476, UTSA Elo 1561 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU +1 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTSA | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | -21.6 (#128) |
| -3 / -2 | offense / defense | -14 / +8 |
| 2.53 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →