#10Daniel Richardson

QB·Florida Atlantic·2023

Daniel Richardson is a Dual-Threat QB for Florida Atlantic. Daniel's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 301 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Daniel Richardson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

208/318 Comp/Att2001 Pass yards13 Pass TD10 INT65.4% Comp %

Rushing

-62 Rush yards0 Rush TD42 Carries-1.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency28
Clutch59

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency28th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.37 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Rice (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMonmouth	W42-20	—	2/2	0	0	0	26.2	—	—	-0.92
3	@Clemson	L14-48	10.5	18/32	120	0	1	27.8	-18	0	-0.07
4	@Illinois	L17-23	-2.5	28/49	256	2	1	53.4	5	0	0.15
6	vsTulsa	W20-17	-13.7	18/28	144	0	1	29.1	14	0	0.14
7	@South Florida	W56-14	-6.6	31/38	382	3	1	94.4	22	0	0.82
8	vsUTSA	L10-36	5.4	19/34	142	0	2	10.5	-34	0	0.08
9	@Charlotte	W38-16	-21.4	19/26	218	3	1	79.6	6	0	0.51
10	@UAB	L42-45	-14.7	17/33	293	3	1	40.9	2	0	0.41
11	vsEast Carolina	L7-22	-12.8	24/36	151	0	1	6.8	-36	0	-0.02
12	vsTulane	L8-24	2.8	24/31	202	1	1	32.5	-28	0	0.11
13	@Rice	L21-24	-10.2	8/9	93	1	0	87.0	5	0	0.94

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.0%

Passing plays

86.4%

Rushing plays

5.5%

Standard downs

40.9%

Passing downs

62.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.27
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / 0.79

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).