Illinois vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsWIS
- Q4 4:23WISNathanial Vakos 32 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q4 8:16WISDarrion Dupree 4 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–24
- Q3 1:23ILLDavid Olano 24 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 9:40WISDarrion Dupree 84 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:14WISNathanial Vakos 47 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 5:45ILLLuke Altmyer 12 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)7–7
- Q1 1:21WISVinny Anthony II 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.4
- PassLuke Altmyer 21/35, 248 YDS
- RushLuke Altmyer 13 CAR, 20 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCollin Dixon 3 REC, 62 YDS
- PassCarter Smith 9/11, 75 YDS
- RushDarrion Dupree 17 CAR, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrech Kekahuna 5 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:40WIS +23%
Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 84 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 5:45ILL +22%
Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer rush left for 12 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:21WIS +20%
Shotgun #8 V.Anthony II rush right for 6 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:23ILL +11%
#24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD
- Q2 0:14WIS +11%
#90 N.Vakos field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
- Q4 9:12WIS +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Smith sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ILL18 (#90 J.Thompson Jr.)
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Wisconsin?
Illinois 10, Wisconsin 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ILL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 298 | Total yards | 301 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 92 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 209 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/35 | Comp/Att | 11/15 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 28:15 | Possession | 31:45 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:49 WIS punt on 4th & 1 at WIS 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:23WISNathanial Vakos 32 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q4 8:16WISDarrion Dupree 4 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)10–24
- Q3 1:23ILLDavid Olano 24 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 9:40WISDarrion Dupree 84 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:14WISNathanial Vakos 47 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 5:45ILLLuke Altmyer 12 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)7–7
- Q1 1:21WISVinny Anthony II 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1467, ILL Elo 1630 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS +4.1 (40% to win) — 4.9 points clear of WIS's market line of +9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #47 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Wisconsin leads 46–38–7 · Wisconsin has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ILL | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.1 (#36) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#72) |
| +10 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / -8 |
| 2.76 | points / drive | 1.23 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →