Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsUSA
- Q4 2:32CCUTray Brown 13 Yd Fumble Return (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)38–20
- Q4 2:48CCUKian Afrookhteh 44 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q4 6:32USAHamilton DiBoyan 47 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q4 10:00CCUJa'Vin Simpkins 24 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)28–17
- Q3 5:11USAHamilton DiBoyan 37 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q3 11:19CCUTad Hudson 7 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)21–14
- Q3 13:16CCURobby Washington 17 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:24USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:08CCUMalick Meiga 19 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–7
- Q2 7:12USAAnthony Eager 0 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassTad Hudson 13/25, 112 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJa'Vin Simpkins 9 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBryson Graves 5 REC, 35 YDS
- PassBishop Davenport 22/36, 197 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKeenan Phillips 13 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecDevin Voisin 8 REC, 94 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:57USA +80%
Keenan Phillips run for 54 yds to the CCU 21 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:39CCU +63%
Kneel down by Coastal Carolina at CCU48 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 10:00CCU +28%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 24 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
- Q3 11:19CCU +25%
Tad Hudson run for 7 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
- Q4 0:00CCU +20%
Kneel down by Coastal Carolina at CCU46 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 10:35CCU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hudson,Tad pass incomplete deep right to Gillie,Malcolm thrown to USA42 PENALTY USA Offside (Wiseman,Dominic) 5 yards from CCU32 to CCU37. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama?
Coastal Carolina 38, South Alabama 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CCU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 294 | Total yards | 420 |
| 112 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 182 | Rushing yards | 223 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-55 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 23:19 | Possession | 36:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:50 USA punt on 4th & 6 at CCU 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:32CCUTray Brown 13 Yd Fumble Return (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)38–20
- Q4 2:48CCUKian Afrookhteh 44 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q4 6:32USAHamilton DiBoyan 47 Yd Field Goal 28–20
- Q4 10:00CCUJa'Vin Simpkins 24 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)28–17
- Q3 5:11USAHamilton DiBoyan 37 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q3 11:19CCUTad Hudson 7 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)21–14
- Q3 13:16CCURobby Washington 17 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–14
- Q2 1:24USAKentrel Bullock 2 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–14
- Q2 5:08CCUMalick Meiga 19 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–7
- Q2 7:12USAAnthony Eager 0 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1532, CCU Elo 1172 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -16.8 (86% to win) — 2.3 points clear of USA's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #16 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| CCU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#115) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#104) |
| -8 / +8 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →