Sam Houston vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsORST
- Q4 8:29SHSUBrody Henderson 31 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Christian Pavon Kick)21–17
- Q3 14:42SHSUTim Burns Jr. 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Christian Pavon Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:14SHSUChris Reed 35 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Christian Pavon Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:53ORSTAnthony Hankerson 13 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–17
- Q1 8:00ORSTCaleb Ojeda 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:55ORSTAnthony Hankerson 2 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMabrey Mettauer 4/10, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMabrey Mettauer 3 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecChris Reed 3 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGabarri Johnson 29/42, 286 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 33 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDavid Wells Jr. 9 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:45ORST +65%
Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush right for 10 yards gain to the OSU39 (#97 D.Frazier), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 8:29SHSU +39%
PENALTY SAM Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU03 to OSU08. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:24SHSU +25%
#35 C.Gerrand punt 40 yards to the SAM48 fair catch by #7 T.Walker at SAM48
- Q4 1:40SHSU +20%
Shotgun #9 J.Parker rush left for 18 yards gain to the OSU37 (#0 K.Singleton) PENALTY SAM Holding (#71 J.Dawn II) 10 yards from SAM45 to SAM35. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:17ORST +20%
Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush left for 3 yards gain to the SAM45 (#6 A.Fish; #97 D.Frazier)
- Q4 10:28ORST +19%
Shotgun #0 A.Hankerson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OSU37 (#42 C.Holloway)
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Oregon State?
Sam Houston 21, Oregon State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SHSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 157 | Total yards | 474 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 286 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 188 |
| 8 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 9/24 | Comp/Att | 29/42 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-58 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 21:47 | Possession | 38:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:43 SHSU punt on 4th & 4 at ORST 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:29SHSUBrody Henderson 31 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Christian Pavon Kick)21–17
- Q3 14:42SHSUTim Burns Jr. 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Christian Pavon Kick)14–17
- Q2 1:14SHSUChris Reed 35 Yd pass from Mabrey Mettauer (Christian Pavon Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:53ORSTAnthony Hankerson 13 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–17
- Q1 8:00ORSTCaleb Ojeda 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:55ORSTAnthony Hankerson 2 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1252, SHSU Elo 1052 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST -10.4 (76% to win) — 10.6 points clear of SHSU's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #4 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| SHSU | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| -30.3 (#134) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#106) |
| -15 / +15 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 1.26 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →