San Diego State vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsHAW
- Q3 2:07HAWElijah Palmer 53 Yd Interception Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)6–38
- Q3 14:49HAWCam Barfield 86 Yd Kickoff Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)6–31
- Q2 4:23HAWKansei Matsuzawa 22 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 12:54HAWJackson Harris 35 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)6–21
- Q2 14:56SDSUGabriel Plascencia 43 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 2:14HAWJackson Harris 34 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:37HAWJackson Harris 9 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:47SDSUGabriel Plascencia 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SDSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HAW did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassJayden Denegal 10/27, 132 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLucky Sutton 18 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecDonovan Brown 3 REC, 60 YDS
- PassMicah Alejado 22/34, 256 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Barfield 11 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecJackson Harris 7 REC, 130 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:14HAW +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep left to #9 J.Harris caught at SDSU03, for 34 yards to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:54HAW +18%
Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep left to #9 J.Harris caught at SDSU02, for 35 yards to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 6:37HAW +17%
Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short left to #9 J.Harris caught at SDSU00, for 9 yards to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:23HAW +13%
#17 K.Matsuzawa field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD
- Q2 14:56SDSU +9%
#11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD
- Q1 10:47SDSU +7%
#11 G.Plascencia field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Hawai'i?
San Diego State 6, Hawai'i 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SDSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 386 |
| 132 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 12 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 10/28 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 8-50 |
| 26:54 | Possession | 33:06 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:37 HAW punt on 4th & 1 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:07HAWElijah Palmer 53 Yd Interception Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)6–38
- Q3 14:49HAWCam Barfield 86 Yd Kickoff Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)6–31
- Q2 4:23HAWKansei Matsuzawa 22 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 12:54HAWJackson Harris 35 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)6–21
- Q2 14:56SDSUGabriel Plascencia 43 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 2:14HAWJackson Harris 34 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–14
- Q1 6:37HAWJackson Harris 9 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:47SDSUGabriel Plascencia 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1359, SDSU Elo 1601 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW +7.3 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #66 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →San Diego State leads 23–10–2 · 49% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#35) | CORE overall | -6.2 (#82) |
| -2 / -14 | offense / defense | +1 / +7 |
| 1.88 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 1.14 | allowed / drive | 2.06 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →