Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsNMSU
- Q4 2:39NMSUNaeten Mitchell 71 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)10–37
- Q4 4:56NMSURyan Hawk 45 Yd Field Goal 10–30
- Q4 11:15NMSUPJ Johnson III 4 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)10–27
- Q4 12:09NMSUKadarius Calloway 3 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)10–20
- Q3 0:01SHSUAlton McCaskill 15 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)10–13
- Q3 3:40NMSURyan Hawk 32 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 0:35SHSUChristian Pavon 51 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 2:45NMSULogan Fife 1 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)0–10
- Q2 7:00NMSURyan Hawk 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassHunter Watson 22/34, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlton McCaskill 12 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecLandan Brown 7 REC, 53 YDS
- PassLogan Fife 19/26, 255 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKadarius Calloway 15 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTK King 6 REC, 132 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:01SHSU +28%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 15 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
- Q4 12:09NMSU +23%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
- Q1 9:47SHSU +22%
RJ Lopez 56 yd FG MISSED
- Q3 0:00NMSU +11%
Kadarius Calloway run for 29 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST down
- Q4 11:46NMSU +6%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 4
- Q3 6:56NMSU +5%
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the NMSU 24
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State?
Sam Houston 10, New Mexico State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SHSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SHSU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 313 | Total yards | 350 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 69 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/39 | Comp/Att | 19/26 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 30:11 | Possession | 29:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:20 SHSU punt on 4th & 1 at SHSU 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:39NMSUNaeten Mitchell 71 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)10–37
- Q4 4:56NMSURyan Hawk 45 Yd Field Goal 10–30
- Q4 11:15NMSUPJ Johnson III 4 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)10–27
- Q4 12:09NMSUKadarius Calloway 3 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)10–20
- Q3 0:01SHSUAlton McCaskill 15 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)10–13
- Q3 3:40NMSURyan Hawk 32 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 0:35SHSUChristian Pavon 51 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 2:45NMSULogan Fife 1 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)0–10
- Q2 7:00NMSURyan Hawk 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1147, SHSU Elo 1243 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +1.4 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #105 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| SHSU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -30.3 (#134) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#120) |
| -15 / +15 | offense / defense | -12 / +6 |
| 1.26 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.93 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →