New Mexico vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 0:36UNMD.J. McKinney 3 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)35–10
- Q4 7:06UNMDamon Bankston 43 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)28–10
- Q4 10:42UNMDamon Bankston 2 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)21–10
- Q3 3:34UCLAMateen Bhaghani 51 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 8:59UCLATitus Mokiao-Atimalala 12 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:43UNMSimon Mapa 8 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:10UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJack Layne 12/16, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDamon Bankston 15 CAR, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDamon Bankston 3 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNico Iamaleava 22/34, 217 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Woods 10 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecMikey Matthews 3 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:42UNM +22%
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
- Q3 0:00UNM +13%
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 5 yds to the UCLA 32
- Q3 3:34UCLA +12%
Mateen Bhaghani 51 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 13:23UCLA +10%
Daniel Hughes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the UCLA 10
- Q3 6:34UCLA +7%
Will Karoll punt for 32 yds
- Q4 7:40UNM +6%
Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete short left to Buckley,Michael caught at UCLA34, for 4 yards to the UCLA34, out of bounds at UCLA34 PENALTY UNM Illegal Motion (Pearce,…
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. UCLA?
New Mexico 35, UCLA 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 450 | Total yards | 326 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 217 |
| 298 | Rushing yards | 109 |
| 22 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 12/17 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-29 | Penalties | 13-116 |
| 36:38 | Possession | 23:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:09 UCLA punt on 4th & 2 at UCLA 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36UNMD.J. McKinney 3 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)35–10
- Q4 7:06UNMDamon Bankston 43 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)28–10
- Q4 10:42UNMDamon Bankston 2 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)21–10
- Q3 3:34UCLAMateen Bhaghani 51 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 8:59UCLATitus Mokiao-Atimalala 12 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:43UNMSimon Mapa 8 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:10UNMScottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1407, UNM Elo 1332 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -5.4 (65% to win) — 10.1 points clear of UNM's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #12 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| UNM | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 3.43 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →