West Virginia vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsHOU
- Q4 6:24HOUAmare Thomas 27 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)45–35
- Q4 7:15WVUDiore Hubbard 11 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)45–28
- Q4 12:54WVUScotty Fox Jr. 34 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)38–28
- Q3 1:16HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:33WVUJordan Scruggs 80 Yd Interception Return (Kade Hensley Kick)31–21
- Q3 12:14WVUKade Hensley 50 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 3:03HOUAmare Thomas 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–21
- Q2 8:49HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:54WVUCam Vaughn 24 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:58HOUTanner Koziol 3 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:03WVUCyncir Bowers 21 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:31WVUScotty Fox Jr. 6 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WVU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassScotty Fox Jr. 13/22, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDiore Hubbard 29 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeff Weimer 3 REC, 67 YDS
- PassConner Weigman 25/35, 309 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushDean Connors 13 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 10 REC, 99 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:49HOU +51%
No Huddle-Shotgun #27 C.Ash rush middle for 4 yards gain to the HOU46 (#90 E.Walls III)
- Q3 1:16HOU +30%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at WVU13, for 8 yards to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 12:54WVU +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. rush middle for 34 yards gain to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 6:33WVU +28%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #6 J.Scruggs at WVU20 #6 J.Scruggs return 80 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:03HOU +22%
Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at WVU00, for 9 yards to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:54WVU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete deep right to #4 C.Vaughn caught at HOU00, for 24 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Houston?
West Virginia 45, Houston 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WVU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 403 | Total yards | 400 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 246 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 20 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 13/22 | Comp/Att | 26/36 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 30:29 | Possession | 29:31 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:58 WVU go for it on 4th & 9 at WVU 30. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.77 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:24HOUAmare Thomas 27 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)45–35
- Q4 7:15WVUDiore Hubbard 11 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)45–28
- Q4 12:54WVUScotty Fox Jr. 34 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)38–28
- Q3 1:16HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:33WVUJordan Scruggs 80 Yd Interception Return (Kade Hensley Kick)31–21
- Q3 12:14WVUKade Hensley 50 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 3:03HOUAmare Thomas 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–21
- Q2 8:49HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:54WVUCam Vaughn 24 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:58HOUTanner Koziol 3 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:03WVUCyncir Bowers 21 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:31WVUScotty Fox Jr. 6 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1507, WVU Elo 1300 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -10.7 (77% to win) — 2.3 points clear of WVU's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #25 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #36 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| WVU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.6 (#98) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#65) |
| -11 / -1 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →