Army vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsKSU
- Q4 2:52ARMYCale Hellums 14 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)24–21
- Q4 10:46ARMYDawson Jones 35 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q3 3:08KSUBryce Noernberg 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Avery Johnson Pass to Jaron Tibbs for Two-Point Conversion)14–21
- Q3 3:20ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)14–13
- Q2 0:00ARMYBrady Anderson 2 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)7–13
- Q2 2:25KSULuis Rodriguez 38 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 11:47KSUJaron Tibbs 32 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:21KSULuis Rodriguez 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassNoah Short 1/1, 52 YDS
- RushCale Hellums 41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrady Anderson 3 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAvery Johnson 15/25, 172 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoe Jackson 7 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecJaron Tibbs 5 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:52ARMY +67%
Cale Hellums run for 14 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q3 3:08KSU +33%
Anderson Britton kickoff for 64 yds, Bryce Noernberg return for 99 yds for a TD (Avery Johnson pass to Jaron Tibbs for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 3:20ARMY +29%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q4 1:30ARMY +27%
Cale Hellums run for a loss of 10 yards to the ARMY 44
- Q4 2:30KSU +24%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 9 yds to the KSU 34
- Q2 11:47KSU +15%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Kansas State?
Army 24, Kansas State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total yards | 246 |
| 95 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 237 | Rushing yards | 74 |
| 20 | First downs | 13 |
| 10-22 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 6-7 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 8/12 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 40:29 | Possession | 19:31 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:29 KSU punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:52ARMYCale Hellums 14 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)24–21
- Q4 10:46ARMYDawson Jones 35 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q3 3:08KSUBryce Noernberg 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Avery Johnson Pass to Jaron Tibbs for Two-Point Conversion)14–21
- Q3 3:20ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)14–13
- Q2 0:00ARMYBrady Anderson 2 Yd pass from Cale Hellums (Dawson Jones Kick)7–13
- Q2 2:25KSULuis Rodriguez 38 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 11:47KSUJaron Tibbs 32 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:21KSULuis Rodriguez 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1666, ARMY Elo 1607 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -4.8 (64% to win) — 11.7 points clear of ARMY's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #11 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| ARMY | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#49) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +3 / -4 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -34 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →