Delaware vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DELTeam statsFIU
- Q4 4:45DELViron Ellison Jr. 9 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)38–16
- Q4 12:22FIUAlex Perry 5 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)31–16
- Q3 2:53DELNick Laboy 14 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)31–10
- Q3 9:24FIURobert Czeremcha 35 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 2:37DELKyre Duplessis 68 Yd Punt Return (Nate Reed Kick)24–7
- Q2 4:26DELNick Laboy 2 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:55DELJo Silver 14 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:32FIUKeyone Jenkins 2 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:31DELNate Reed 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassNick Minicucci 23/35, 218 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJo Silver 13 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSean Wilson 7 REC, 78 YDS
- PassKeyone Jenkins 22/34, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKejon Owens 15 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecAlex Perry 5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDEL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:08FIU +7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 32 yds to the FIU 27 for a 1ST down
- Q3 2:53DEL +6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 14 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
- Q3 2:47DEL +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short left to Duplessis,Kyre thrown to DEL48 PENALTY DEL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Demboski,Steven) 5 yards from D…
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Florida International?
Delaware 38, Florida International 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
| DEL | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 358 | Total yards | 363 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 140 | Rushing yards | 160 |
| 24 | First downs | 14 |
| 11-16 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 23/35 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 7-68 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:56 DEL go for it on 4th & 5 at FIU 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:45DELViron Ellison Jr. 9 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)38–16
- Q4 12:22FIUAlex Perry 5 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)31–16
- Q3 2:53DELNick Laboy 14 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)31–10
- Q3 9:24FIURobert Czeremcha 35 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 2:37DELKyre Duplessis 68 Yd Punt Return (Nate Reed Kick)24–7
- Q2 4:26DELNick Laboy 2 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:55DELJo Silver 14 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:32FIUKeyone Jenkins 2 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:31DELNate Reed 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1367, DEL Elo 1454 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +1.1 (48% to win) — 5.6 points clear of DEL's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #84 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| DEL | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.0 (#107) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#109) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →