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Dakota Thomas
Dakota Thomas

#5Dakota Thomas

WR·Nevada·2025

Dakota Thomas is a Slot Specialist WR for Nevada. Dakota's 2025 season produced 14.8 total EPA across 32 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dakota Thomas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving
26 Receptions268 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume21
  • Explosiveness22
  • Consistency72
  • Pass-Down0
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.59 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs San José State (SP+ -14).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Dane KinamonAir Force0.4100.716.0
Savion WilliamsTCU0.4501.125.2
Keytaon ThompsonVirginia0.3700.615.2
Micah DavisAir Force0.3700.616.3
JoJo NatsonUtah State0.3901.019.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.590−1.59Wk 4 vs Western Kentucky: +0.89 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Fresno State: +0.75 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs San Diego State: +0.12 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs New Mexico: +0.47 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Boise State: -0.04 EPA/play9Wk 12 vs San José State: +1.59 EPA/play12Wk 14 vs UNLV: +0.19 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
4@Western KentuckyL16-311.622311.50170.89
6@Fresno StateL17-201.811515.01150.75
7vsSan Diego StateL10-446.72178.5090.12
8@New MexicoL22-240.98678.40240.47
9vsBoise StateL3-243.122613.0014-0.04
12vsSan José StateW55-10-14.368514.20251.59
14vsUNLVL17-424.35357.00140.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
7.3%
Passing plays
16.3%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
5.5%
Passing downs
10.9%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.70
Passing downs
0.16
Pass / Rush EPA
0.46 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.
Dakota Thomas Stats, EPA & Player Profile — Nevada · Gridpex