Schedule & Results
WKUWestern KentuckyW49-14✗Wk 2vsMOSTMontana State0-17Wk 3@
MTSUMiddle Tennessee+1.347%Wk 4vs
AFAir Force+5.437%Wk 6@
UTEPUTEP-6.065%Wk 7@
NDSUNorth Dakota State+8.329%Wk 8vs
SJSUSan José State-20.494%Wk 9@
UCLAUCLA+20.99%Wk 10vs
UNMNew Mexico+9.228%Wk 11@
NIUNorthern Illinois-4.662%Wk 12vs
HAWHawai'i+13.520%Wk 13@
UNLVUNLV+17.614%Team Leaders
Carter JonesPassing163 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Dominic KelleyRushing152 yds · 2 TD · 13.8 avg
Gary Givens IIIReceiving2 rec · 83 yds · 0 TD
EJ SmithTackles14 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Nevada
All news →Carter Jones produced four of Nevada's eight explosive plays
Four Points Apart at Mackay Stadium, on a Projection With Zero 2026 Games
Roster · 103 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Reeve Slone | QB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Rocklin, CA |
| 6 | Carter Jones | QB | SO | 6'3" | 197 | Lancaster, TX |
| 10 | AJ Bianco | QB | SR | 6'3" | 217 | Honolulu, HI |
| 12 | Luke Duncan | QB | JR | 6'6" | 210 | Orinda, CA |
| 0 | Dominic Kelley | RB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Concord, CA |
| 1 | Herschel Turner | RB | JR | 5'9" | 196 | Richmond, CA |
| 2 | Janerious Jackson | RB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | Atlanta, GA |
| 4 | Carter Jackson | RB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Folsom, CA |
| 24 | Bronwyn Rios | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Sparks, NV |
| 25 | Ky Woods | RB | SR | 5'9" | 173 | League City, TX |
| 26 | Mekai Smith | RB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | San Francisco, CA |
| 3 | Jaceon Doss | WR | SR | 6'0" | 170 | Compton, CA |
| 5 | Donnie Cheers | WR | JR | 6'0" | 180 | Marion, AR |
| 7 | Gary Givens III | WR | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Tampa, FL |
| 8 | Daijon Calimon | WR | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Lawndale, CA |
| 9 | Marshaun Brown | WR | JR | 6'4" | 198 | Reno, NV |
| 11 | Damien Morgan | WR | SR | 5'10" | 181 | Modesto, CA |
| 13 | Isaiah Williams | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Folsom, CA |
| 14 | Gerick Robinson | WR | SR | 5'7" | 178 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 18 | Don Henry | WR | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Houma, LA |
| 19 | Mack Kump | WR | FR | 5'9" | 183 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 30 | Alex Grush | WR | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Reno, NV |
| 84 | Deven Vigue | WR | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Vancouver, WA |
| 86 | Joe Stimpson | WR | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Portland, OR |
| 87 | Amari Nash | WR | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Reno, NV |
| 88 | Perrion Williams | WR | FR | 6'0" | 175 | East Palo Alto, CA |
| 16 | DJ Asiasi | TE | FR | 6'2" | 248 | Concord, CA |
| 19 | Kola Babalola | TE | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Modesto, CA |
| 80 | Darren Schmitt | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Vancouver, WA |
| 81 | Trace Estes | TE | SO | 6'4" | 220 | Minden, NV |
| 82 | Jayden O'Rourke | TE | SR | 6'9" | 262 | Tweed Heads, NSW |
| 83 | Carter Eck | TE | SO | 6'2" | 245 | Reno, NV |
| 89 | Benjamin Wheeler | TE | JR | 6'2" | 224 | Susanville, CA |
| 52 | Elias Justice | OL | JR | 6'3" | 315 | Sparks, NV |
| 55 | Jack Foster | OL | SR | 6'6" | 298 | Boise, ID |
| 56 | Max Zuro | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Washoe Valley, NV |
| 58 | Ethan Lowell | OL | SO | 6'3" | 282 | Modesto, CA |
| 59 | Jacob Norcross | OL | JR | 6'2" | 300 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 61 | Terrence Johnson | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | San Jose, CA |
| 64 | Jackson Ramsey | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Reno, NV |
| 65 | Colton Hogge | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Lincoln, CA |
| 66 | Henry Sellards | OL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | Kalispell, MT |
| 68 | Mataio Aiono | OL | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Sparks, NV |
| 70 | Snoop Leota-Amaama | OL | SR | 6'4" | 331 | Lehi, UT |
| 71 | Colin Banning | OL | FR | 6'2" | 304 | Spring Creek, NV |
| 72 | Ethan Newman | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Navarre, FL |
| 73 | Tyler Miller | OL | SO | 6'2" | 302 | Reno, NV |
| 75 | Jose Balver-Mendoza | OL | SO | 6'5" | 287 | Athens, GA |
| 76 | Zach Cochnauer | OL | SR | 6'5" | 306 | Farmington, MN |
| 3 | Kameron Brown | EDGE | FR | 6'2" | 249 | Norco, CA |
| 4 | Brandon Amaniampong | EDGE | JR | 6'6" | 250 | Woodridge, IL |
| 9 | Jack MacKinnon | EDGE | JR | 6'4" | 239 | Sarasota, FL |
| 32 | Dylan LaBarbera | EDGE | SR | 6'1" | 248 | Redding, CA |
| 37 | Matt Perez | EDGE | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Port Hueneme, CA |
| 46 | Tanner Gray | EDGE | FR | 6'2" | 240 | Wellington, CO |
| 88 | Keegan Perea | EDGE | FR | 6'1" | 255 | Glendale, CO |
| 92 | Myles Williams | EDGE | SR | 6'3" | 242 | Mission Hills, CA |
| 93 | Craig Statler | EDGE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Grass Valley, CA |
| 94 | Sam Davidson IV | EDGE | FR | 6'5" | 260 | Seattle, WA |
| 95 | Chris Kalu | EDGE | SO | 6'3" | 250 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 10 | Logologo Va'a | DL | SR | 6'3" | 329 | Santa Barbara, CA |
| 90 | Jason Hemphill II | DL | FR | 5'11" | 300 | Cypress, TX |
| 96 | Tanner Vaughan | DL | SR | 6'3" | 270 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 98 | David Paine Jr. | DL | SO | 6'1" | 273 | Forney, TX |
| 99 | Jakobus Seth | DL | SR | 6'3" | 291 | Lakewood, WA |
| 91 | James Gillespie | DT | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 97 | Jeremiah Foni | DT | JR | 6'1" | 290 | San Leandro, CA |
| 1 | Jeremy Naborne-Owens | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Corona, CA |
| 2 | EJ Smith | LB | SR | 6'0" | 243 | Downey, CA |
| 11 | Poasa Utu | LB | JR | 6'0" | 230 | Arlington, TX |
| 14 | Jaxon Cannida | LB | FR | 6'3" | 219 | McKinney, TX |
| 19 | CJ Mooring | LB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Houston, TX |
| 20 | Cody Wells | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 30 | Jake Silverman | LB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Torrance, CA |
| 36 | Isaiah Reed | LB | FR | 6'1" | 218 | Meridian, ID |
| 42 | Colson Kermode | LB | FR | 6'1" | 212 | Reno, NV |
| 44 | Alosio Maluia | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 35 | Zion Jones | CB | SO | 6'2" | 163 | Spanaway, WA |
| 0 | Joshua Scott | DB | SR | 6'2" | 185 | Antioch, CA |
| 5 | Zion Jones | DB | JR | 6'2" | 163 | Spanaway, WA |
| 6 | Cooper Wilson | DB | JR | 6'2" | 186 | Suquamish, WA |
| 7 | Selman Bridges | DB | SO | 6'4" | 181 | Temple, TX |
| 8 | Larry Turner-Gooden | DB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 12 | Bryson Snelling | DB | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Chico, CA |
| 13 | Tajean Stallworth | DB | FR | 6'0" | 164 | Stockton, CA |
| 15 | Bishop Turner | DB | JR | 5'10" | 188 | Altadena, CA |
| 16 | Brock Wattenbarger | DB | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 17 | Zavien Abercrombie | DB | SO | 5'9" | 166 | Arlington, TX |
| 18 | Aiden Walker | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Round Rock, TX |
| 22 | Jaylen Webb | DB | JR | 6'2" | 196 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 24 | Justin Wyatt Jr. | DB | FR | 6'2" | 169 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 25 | Joey Thomas III | DB | FR | 6'1" | 170 | Seattle, WA |
| 26 | Isaiah Jordan | DB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Sacramento, CA |
| 28 | Mykel Ford | DB | FR | 5'10" | 168 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 29 | Dorsey Sanders | DB | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Yuba City, CA |
| 31 | Coy Jones | DB | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Elko, NV |
| 33 | Michael Hunt | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Gainesville, VA |
| 34 | Cutter Vorhees | DB | FR | 6'2" | 190 | San Marcos, CA |
| 84 | Joe McFadden | PK | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Grapevine, TX |
| 98 | Kyle Nelson | PK | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Reno, NV |
| 99 | Jacob Fernandez | PK | FR | 6'6" | 215 | Sydney, NSW |
| 95 | Ewan Baulch | P | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 51 | Cian Stack | LS | SO | 6'0" | 240 | Reno, NV |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Nevada is in year 3 under Jeff Choate. The strengths are defensive, led by 34th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 131st at turning trips inside the 40 into points, and they are 129th at throwing it.
Nevada has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#34projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#131projected
- Offensethrowing it#129projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#128projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.19#11
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.89 / 4.56
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 11.1%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 11.9%#113
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.5% / 2.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.46#11 | 0.76#8 | 0.88#27 |
| Defense | 0.03#89 | -0.15#27 | 0.11#28 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.5689th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0750th
- Offense success rate51%66th
- Defense success rate allowed44%26th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%52nd
- Offense success — passing downs50%88th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs51%23rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs32%36th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.697th
- Defense explosiveness allowed0.9092nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.599th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.055th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.575th
- Defense line yards allowed3.034th
- Offense highlight yards3.193rd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.7647th
- Offense power success0.8673rd
- Defense power success allowed0.6761st
- Offense stuff rate0.1934th
- Defense stuff rate0.2047th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced6.750th
- Third down conversion allowed38%47th
- Third down distance forced8.372nd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0340th
- Net success rate — second half0.1157th
Drives
- Points per drive4.591st
- Points per drive allowed1.374th
- Average starting field position3486th
- Opponent starting field position2480th
- Available yards gained69%84th
- Available yards allowed40%75th
- Scoring opportunities per drive91%75th
- Scoring opportunities allowed55%91st
- Points per scoring opportunity4.990th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.362nd
- Three-and-out rate18%73rd
- Three-and-outs forced36%76th
Roster
- Returning usage44%51st
- Returning EPA32.315th
- Team talent composite55015th
- Recruiting class rank98.029th
- Recruiting class points17729th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.261 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-0 record through 1 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 37.5%
- Expected, given the spots
- 46.1%
- Over expected
- -8.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- -3
- Fourth down vs the model
- -100
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Nevada is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Nevada in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 3-10 | 0-7 | 23% | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 2023 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 17% | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 2021 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 78% | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 25% | 4.5 | -1.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 8.1-4.2. Wins the Mountain West in 11%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.
Win out and it is 92%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 2.3 points since preseason — won 49-14 over Western Kentucky against an expected margin of −2, so +37.0 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 45% where the average Mountain West team is 51%.
- The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 2.7% of seasons, having won their league in 93% of those.
Nevada’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at UCLA9.4
- wk13at UNLV8.2
- wk10vs New Mexico6.1
- wk4vs Air Force4.8
- wk12vs Hawai'i4.1
- wk8vs San José State3.7
Who to root for
Games Nevada is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk2North Dakota State over Air Force1.2
- wk9Northern Illinois over UNLV0.8
- wk6Western Michigan over Kent State0.7
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.7
- wk11San José State over Air Force0.6
- wk8Washington State over Boise State0.6
Mountain West
0-0 in league play, projected 4.9-3.14 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk13Nevada at UNLV22.8
- wk10New Mexico at Nevada19.3
- wk4Air Force at Nevada15.0
- wk12Hawai'i at Nevada12.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
Nevada is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.7% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- New Mexico Bowl19%
- LA Bowl18%
- Arizona Bowl13%
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl9.6%
- Frisco Bowl6.8%
- Cure Bowl6.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent Nevada a player since 2010 — 22 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Nevada's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.