Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Nevada gets at UNLV: 58th in the push up front, against a unit 136th at holding the line of scrimmage. Where UNLV gets at Nevada: 46th in the push up front, against a unit 107th at holding the line of scrimmage. Nevada is also 66th at running it, against a unit 136th.
How
NEVattacks
UNLV
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 2 games in
NEV3.92#58 of 138UNLV3.79#136 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 20% this season, 2 games
NEV+0.37#66 of 138UNLV+0.22#136 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 47% this season, 2 games
NEV1.36#50 of 138UNLV1.25#90 of 138
HowUNLVattacksNEV
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 29% this season, 3 games
UNLV3.00#46 of 138NEV2.85#107 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 30% this season, 3 games
UNLV45%#70 of 138NEV49%#125 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 30% this season, 3 games
UNLV38%#74 of 138NEV44%#108 of 138
The two teams
Nevada
Nevada is in year 3 under Jeff Choate. The strengths are defensive, led by 2nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 133rd at throwing it, and they are 125th on early downs defensively.
Nevada has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.98#2 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it+0.08#133 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down49%#125 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve34%#123 of 138
UNLV
UNLV throws it: Dan Mullen's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The way in is 136th at defending the run, and they are 136th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UNLV has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.22#136 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets3.79#136 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.12#125 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1480, NEV Elo 1462 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -17.6 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NEV50th103rdUNLVUNLV109th53rdNEVThrough the air
NEV117th89thUNLVUNLV93rd60thNEVOn the ground
NEV16th110thUNLVUNLV67th107thNEVStaying on the field
NEV78th105thUNLVUNLV93rd75thNEVTaking care of it
NEV124th76thUNLVUNLV104th76thNEV
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNevada leads 25–17 · UNLV has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NEV | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.46 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 1.27 | allowed / drive | 2.27 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Nevada vs. UNLV?
Gridpex's model favors UNLV with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Nevada vs. UNLV?
The model projects UNLV by 17.6.
What time is Nevada vs. UNLV and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 9:00 PM ET, at Allegiant Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →