Oregon vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsARIZ
- Q4 8:59ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.16–42
- Q4 8:59ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.16–41
- Q4 14:11OREOREGON Extra point GOOD.16–35
- Q4 14:11OREOREGON pass complete for a touchdown.15–35
- Q3 2:07ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.9–35
- Q3 2:07ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.9–34
- Q2 0:18ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.9–28
- Q2 0:18ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.9–27
- Q2 7:39OREOREGON pass complete for a touchdown.9–21
- Q2 11:32ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.3–21
- Q2 11:32ARIZARIZONA pass complete for a touchdown.3–21
- Q1 2:49OREOREGON 33 yard field goal GOOD.3–14
- Q1 7:09ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q1 7:09ARIZARIZONA pass complete for a touchdown.0–14
- Q1 11:51ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 11:51ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 3.6
- PassMarcus Mariota 27/41, 308 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDe'Anthony Thomas 16 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecDe'Anthony Thomas 6 REC, 74 YDS
- PassB.J. Denker 19/22, 178 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKa'Deem Carey 48 CAR, 206 YDS, 4 TD
- RecTerrence Miller 9 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 731 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:32ARIZ +23%
B.J. Denker pass complete to Terrence Miller for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:18ARIZ +19%
Ka'Deem Carey rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 7:09ARIZ +18%
B.J. Denker pass complete to Nate Phillips for 9 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 7:39ORE +16%
Marcus Mariota pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:51ARIZ +9%
Ka'Deem Carey rush for 6 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:32ARIZ +9%
B.J. Denker pass complete to Terrence Miller for 17 yards to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Arizona?
Oregon 16, Arizona 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORE | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 482 |
| 308 | Passing yards | 178 |
| 198 | Rushing yards | 304 |
| 27 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 11-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/41 | Comp/Att | 19/22 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-66 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 24:31 | Possession | 35:29 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:27 ARIZ punt on 4th & 5 at ORE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:59ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.16–42
- Q4 8:59ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.16–41
- Q4 14:11OREOREGON Extra point GOOD.16–35
- Q4 14:11OREOREGON pass complete for a touchdown.15–35
- Q3 2:07ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.9–35
- Q3 2:07ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.9–34
- Q2 0:18ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.9–28
- Q2 0:18ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.9–27
- Q2 7:39OREOREGON pass complete for a touchdown.9–21
- Q2 11:32ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.3–21
- Q2 11:32ARIZARIZONA pass complete for a touchdown.3–21
- Q1 2:49OREOREGON 33 yard field goal GOOD.3–14
- Q1 7:09ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q1 7:09ARIZARIZONA pass complete for a touchdown.0–14
- Q1 11:51ARIZARIZONA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 11:51ARIZARIZONA rush for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1556, ORE Elo 2135 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +20.8 (10% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #11 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Oregon leads 29–17 · Oregon has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →