Skip to content
Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1McNeese over South Florida
53–21 · on the road · 2013-08-31
+20.5+52.510%
2Southern Miss over UAB
62–27 · on the road · 2013-11-30
+13.5+48.520%
3Oklahoma State over Baylor
49–17 · at home · 2013-11-24
+13+45.021%
4Houston over Rutgers
49–14 · on the road · 2013-10-26
+9.5+44.528%
5Arizona over Oregon
42–16 · at home · 2013-11-23
+17.5+43.514%
6Southern Utah over South Alabama
22–21 · neutral site · 2013-08-29
+41+42.00.5%
7Eastern Illinois over San Diego State
40–19 · on the road · 2013-09-01
+19+40.012%
8Illinois over Cincinnati
45–17 · at home · 2013-09-07
+10.5+38.526%
9Colorado State over Wyoming
52–22 · on the road · 2013-10-19
+6.5+36.534%
10Kent State over Ohio
44–13 · on the road · 2013-11-20
+5.5+36.537%
11UConn over Memphis
45–10 · at home · 2013-12-07
+1.5+36.546%
12Towson over UConn
33–18 · on the road · 2013-08-29
+20+35.011%
13East Carolina over North Carolina
55–31 · on the road · 2013-09-28
+10+34.027%
14Georgia Southern over Florida
26–20 · on the road · 2013-11-23
+27.5+33.54%
15Buffalo over UConn
41–12 · at home · 2013-09-28
+2.5+31.544%
16Texas State over Wyoming
42–21 · at home · 2013-09-28
+10.5+31.526%
17Arkansas State over UL Monroe
42–14 · on the road · 2013-11-10
+3.5+31.541%
18Eastern Washington over Oregon State
49–46 · on the road · 2013-08-31
+28+31.04%
19Nicholls over Western Michigan
27–23 · on the road · 2013-09-07
+27+31.05%
20Oregon State over Washington State
52–24 · on the road · 2013-10-13
+3+31.043%
21Wake Forest over Maryland
34–10 · at home · 2013-10-19
+7+31.033%
22Penn State over Wisconsin
31–24 · on the road · 2013-11-30
+23.5+30.57%
23Bowling Green over Tulsa
34–7 · at home · 2013-08-29
+3+30.043%
24West Virginia over Oklahoma State
30–21 · at home · 2013-09-28
+21+30.09%
25Oklahoma over Alabama
45–31 · neutral site · 2014-01-03
+16+30.016%
26Texas over Oklahoma
36–20 · neutral site · 2013-10-12
+13+29.021%
27Nevada over San José State
38–16 · at home · 2013-11-17
+7+29.033%
28UNLV over San Diego State
45–19 · at home · 2013-12-01
+3+29.043%
29Florida Atlantic over South Florida
28–10 · on the road · 2013-09-14
+10.5+28.526%
30Tulane over UL Monroe
31–14 · on the road · 2013-09-28
+11+28.025%
31Rice over Marshall
41–24 · at home · 2013-12-07
+11+28.025%
32Temple over Memphis
41–21 · on the road · 2013-11-30
+7.5+27.532%
33Memphis over Arkansas State
31–7 · at home · 2013-09-21
+3+27.043%
34Ball State over Virginia
48–27 · on the road · 2013-10-05
+6+27.035%
35Kansas State over Texas Tech
49–26 · on the road · 2013-11-09
+4+27.040%
36Vanderbilt over Florida
34–17 · on the road · 2013-11-09
+10+27.027%
37Stanford over Arizona State
38–14 · on the road · 2013-12-08
+3+27.043%
38San Diego State over Buffalo
49–24 · neutral site · 2013-12-21
+2+27.045%
39Texas Tech over Arizona State
37–23 · neutral site · 2013-12-31
+13+27.021%
40Texas over TCU
30–7 · on the road · 2013-10-26
+3.5+26.541%
41UCF over Baylor
52–42 · neutral site · 2014-01-02
+16.5+26.515%
42Missouri over Vanderbilt
51–28 · on the road · 2013-10-05
+2.5+25.544%
43BYU over Texas
40–21 · at home · 2013-09-07
+6+25.035%
44Fordham over Temple
30–29 · on the road · 2013-09-14
+24+25.07%
45Missouri over Georgia
41–26 · on the road · 2013-10-12
+10+25.027%
46Virginia Tech over Miami
42–24 · on the road · 2013-11-10
+6.5+24.534%
47UCLA over USC
35–14 · on the road · 2013-12-01
+3.5+24.541%
48UCLA over Nebraska
41–21 · on the road · 2013-09-14
+4+24.040%
49Bethune-Cookman over Florida International
34–13 · on the road · 2013-09-14
+3+24.043%
50Ole Miss over Texas
44–23 · on the road · 2013-09-15
+3+24.043%
51Indiana over Penn State
44–24 · at home · 2013-10-05
+4+24.040%
52Iowa over Nebraska
38–17 · on the road · 2013-11-29
+3+24.043%
53Washington State over California
44–22 · on the road · 2013-10-05
+1.5+23.546%
54BYU over Utah State
31–14 · on the road · 2013-10-05
+6+23.035%
55Wake Forest over NC State
28–13 · at home · 2013-10-05
+8+23.031%
56Bowling Green over Northern Illinois
47–27 · neutral site · 2013-12-07
+3+23.043%
57UTSA over Tulsa
34–15 · on the road · 2013-11-02
+3.5+22.541%
58Iowa State over Tulsa
38–21 · on the road · 2013-09-26
+4+21.040%
59Florida Atlantic over UAB
37–23 · on the road · 2013-10-05
+7+21.033%
60Duke over Miami
48–30 · at home · 2013-11-16
+3+21.043%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.