Florida Atlantic vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsUAB
- Q4 1:22FAUFLA ATLANTIC2-point conversion pass GOOD.37–23
- Q4 1:22FAUFLA ATLANTIC pass complete for a touchdown.35–23
- Q3 2:56FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.29–23
- Q3 5:06UABUAB 30 yard field goal GOOD.23–23
- Q3 11:50UABUAB Extra point GOOD.23–20
- Q3 11:50UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.23–19
- Q2 0:06FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.23–13
- Q2 0:06FAUFLA ATLANTIC pass complete for a touchdown.22–13
- Q2 6:35FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.16–13
- Q2 6:35FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.15–13
- Q2 10:48UABUAB 37 yard field goal GOOD.9–13
- Q2 14:26FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.9–10
- Q1 1:57UABUAB 34 yard field goal GOOD.3–10
- Q1 6:40UABUAB Extra point GOOD.3–7
- Q1 6:40UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.3–6
- Q1 9:54FAUFLA ATLANTIC 42 yard field goal GOOD.3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FAU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.1
- UAB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassJaquez Johnson 23/36, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJonathan Wallace 17 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJenson Stoshak 3 REC, 59 YDS
- PassAustin Brown 18/33, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDarrin Reaves 16 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecDarrin Reaves 5 REC, 82 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,667 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:56FAU +23%
Jay Warren rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:06UAB +19%
Ty Long 30 yard field goal GOOD
- Q2 6:35FAU +18%
Jonathan Wallace rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 6:40UAB +17%
Austin Brown pass complete to Jordan Howard for 18 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:50UAB +17%
Austin Brown pass complete to Jamari Staples for 29 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:26FAU +17%
Jaquez Johnson rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. UAB?
Florida Atlantic 37, UAB 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| FAU | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 579 | Total yards | 307 |
| 299 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 280 | Rushing yards | 51 |
| 25 | First downs | 16 |
| 11-17 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 18/33 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 2-12 |
| 35:34 | Possession | 23:47 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:54 FAU field goal on 4th & 2 at UAB 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:22FAUFLA ATLANTIC2-point conversion pass GOOD.37–23
- Q4 1:22FAUFLA ATLANTIC pass complete for a touchdown.35–23
- Q3 2:56FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.29–23
- Q3 5:06UABUAB 30 yard field goal GOOD.23–23
- Q3 11:50UABUAB Extra point GOOD.23–20
- Q3 11:50UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.23–19
- Q2 0:06FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.23–13
- Q2 0:06FAUFLA ATLANTIC pass complete for a touchdown.22–13
- Q2 6:35FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.16–13
- Q2 6:35FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.15–13
- Q2 10:48UABUAB 37 yard field goal GOOD.9–13
- Q2 14:26FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.9–10
- Q1 1:57UABUAB 34 yard field goal GOOD.3–10
- Q1 6:40UABUAB Extra point GOOD.3–7
- Q1 6:40UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.3–6
- Q1 9:54FAUFLA ATLANTIC 42 yard field goal GOOD.3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1145, FAU Elo 1277 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +2.9 (43% to win) — 7.4 points clear of FAU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #64 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Florida Atlantic leads 7–4 · 45% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →