Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsOKST
- Q4 1:59BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.17–49
- Q4 1:59BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.16–49
- Q4 3:01OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.10–49
- Q4 3:01OKSTOKLAHOMA ST pass complete for a touchdown.10–48
- Q4 9:58OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.10–42
- Q4 9:58OKSTBAYLOR fumbled.10–42
- Q4 14:04BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.10–35
- Q4 14:04BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.9–35
- Q3 0:13OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.3–35
- Q3 0:13OKSTOKLAHOMA ST rush for a touchdown.3–34
- Q3 10:10OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.3–28
- Q3 10:10OKSTOKLAHOMA ST rush for a touchdown.3–27
- Q3 13:23OKSTOKLAHOMA ST pass complete for a touchdown.3–21
- Q3 13:23OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.3–21
- Q2 0:13BAYBAYLOR 29 yard field goal GOOD.3–14
- Q2 4:28OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q2 4:28OKSTOKLAHOMA ST pass complete for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 3:07OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:07OKSTOKLAHOMA ST rush for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
- PassBryce Petty 28/48, 359 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBryce Petty 11 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecAntwan Goodley 10 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- PassClint Chelf 19/25, 370 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJeremy Smith 12 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecTracy Moore 5 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 372 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:28OKST +17%
Clint Chelf pass complete to Charlie Moore for 12 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:07OKST +17%
Kye Staley rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 13:23OKST +15%
Clint Chelf pass complete to Tracy Moore for 56 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:13BAY +11%
Aaron Jones 29 yard field goal GOOD
- Q2 0:04OKST +5%
Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Oklahoma State?
Baylor 17, Oklahoma State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BAY | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 453 | Total yards | 594 |
| 359 | Passing yards | 440 |
| 94 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 26 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/48 | Comp/Att | 21/27 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 16.3 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-10 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 24:37 | Possession | 35:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:20 BAY punt on 4th & 5 at OKST 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:59BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.17–49
- Q4 1:59BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.16–49
- Q4 3:01OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.10–49
- Q4 3:01OKSTOKLAHOMA ST pass complete for a touchdown.10–48
- Q4 9:58OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.10–42
- Q4 9:58OKSTBAYLOR fumbled.10–42
- Q4 14:04BAYBAYLOR Extra point GOOD.10–35
- Q4 14:04BAYBAYLOR pass complete for a touchdown.9–35
- Q3 0:13OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.3–35
- Q3 0:13OKSTOKLAHOMA ST rush for a touchdown.3–34
- Q3 10:10OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.3–28
- Q3 10:10OKSTOKLAHOMA ST rush for a touchdown.3–27
- Q3 13:23OKSTOKLAHOMA ST pass complete for a touchdown.3–21
- Q3 13:23OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.3–21
- Q2 0:13BAYBAYLOR 29 yard field goal GOOD.3–14
- Q2 4:28OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q2 4:28OKSTOKLAHOMA ST pass complete for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 3:07OKSTOKLAHOMA ST Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:07OKSTOKLAHOMA ST rush for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1967, BAY Elo 2207 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +7.2 (33% to win) — 2.3 points clear of OKST's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #25 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 23–21 · Baylor has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →