East Carolina vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsUNC
- Q4 3:33ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.55–31
- Q4 3:33ECUEAST CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.54–31
- Q4 8:53ECUEAST CAROLINA 29 yard field goal GOOD.48–31
- Q4 13:52UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.45–31
- Q4 13:52UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.45–30
- Q4 14:55ECUEAST CAROLINA 32 yard field goal GOOD.45–24
- Q3 4:41UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.42–24
- Q3 4:41UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.42–23
- Q3 6:16ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.42–17
- Q3 6:16ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.42–17
- Q3 9:36UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.35–17
- Q3 9:36UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.35–16
- Q3 11:38ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.35–10
- Q3 11:38ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.34–10
- Q2 1:48ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q2 1:48ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.27–10
- Q2 6:33UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q2 6:33UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.21–9
- Q2 10:05ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.21–3
- Q2 10:05ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.20–3
- Q2 14:17UNCNORTH CAROLINA 21 yard field goal GOOD.14–3
- Q1 3:06ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 3:06ECUEAST CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 11:28ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 11:28ECUEAST CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.3
- PassShane Carden 32/47, 376 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushVintavious Cooper 35 CAR, 186 YDS
- RecLance Ray 5 REC, 84 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBryn Renner 28/46, 366 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushA.J. Blue 20 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecQuinshad Davis 5 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:48ECU +17%
Shane Carden rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:06ECU +17%
Shane Carden pass complete to Lance Ray for 7 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:28ECU +15%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 10:05ECU +15%
Shane Carden rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:33UNC +13%
Quinshad Davis pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 32 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:38ECU +7%
Chris Hairston rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. North Carolina?
East Carolina 55, North Carolina 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ECU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 603 | Total yards | 465 |
| 376 | Passing yards | 398 |
| 227 | Rushing yards | 67 |
| 36 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 32/47 | Comp/Att | 29/47 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-34 | Penalties | 9-94 |
| 35:49 | Possession | 23:06 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:17 UNC field goal on 4th & 4 at ECU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:33ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.55–31
- Q4 3:33ECUEAST CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.54–31
- Q4 8:53ECUEAST CAROLINA 29 yard field goal GOOD.48–31
- Q4 13:52UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.45–31
- Q4 13:52UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.45–30
- Q4 14:55ECUEAST CAROLINA 32 yard field goal GOOD.45–24
- Q3 4:41UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.42–24
- Q3 4:41UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.42–23
- Q3 6:16ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.42–17
- Q3 6:16ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.42–17
- Q3 9:36UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.35–17
- Q3 9:36UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.35–16
- Q3 11:38ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.35–10
- Q3 11:38ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.34–10
- Q2 1:48ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q2 1:48ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.27–10
- Q2 6:33UNCNORTH CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q2 6:33UNCNORTH CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.21–9
- Q2 10:05ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.21–3
- Q2 10:05ECUEAST CAROLINA rush for a touchdown.20–3
- Q2 14:17UNCNORTH CAROLINA 21 yard field goal GOOD.14–3
- Q1 3:06ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 3:06ECUEAST CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 11:28ECUEAST CAROLINA Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 11:28ECUEAST CAROLINA pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1619, ECU Elo 1468 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -8.4 (72% to win) — 3.1 points clear of ECU's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #38 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →North Carolina leads 12–5–1 · East Carolina has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →