Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsVAN
- Q4 9:13MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.51–28
- Q4 9:13MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.50–28
- Q4 9:22VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.44–28
- Q4 9:22VANVANDERBILT pass complete for a touchdown.44–27
- Q3 1:15MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.44–21
- Q3 1:15MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.43–21
- Q3 3:19VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.37–21
- Q3 3:19VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.37–20
- Q3 7:16MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.37–14
- Q3 7:16MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.36–14
- Q3 12:03VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.30–14
- Q3 12:03VANVANDERBILT pass complete for a touchdown.30–13
- Q2 1:38MIZMISSOURI 41 yard field goal GOOD.30–7
- Q2 8:15MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.27–7
- Q2 8:15MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.26–7
- Q2 11:04VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.20–7
- Q2 11:04VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.20–6
- Q1 2:50MIZMISSOURI 29 yard field goal GOOD.20–0
- Q1 7:54MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.17–0
- Q1 7:54MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.16–0
- Q1 8:43MIZMISSOURI 44 yard field goal GOOD.10–0
- Q1 13:43MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:43MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassJames Franklin 19/28, 278 YDS, 4 TD
- RushHenry Josey 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TD
- RecL'Damian Washington 3 REC, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAustyn Carta-Samuels 29/41, 338 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJerron Seymour 12 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecJordan Matthews 7 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:43MIZ +15%
James Franklin pass complete to L'Damian Washington for 26 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 7:54MIZ +13%
James Franklin pass complete to Eric Waters for 11 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 8:15MIZ +11%
Henry Josey rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:04VAN +10%
Wesley Tate rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:43MIZ +8%
Andrew Baggett 44 yard field goal GOOD
- Q3 7:16MIZ +6%
Henry Josey rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Vanderbilt?
Missouri 51, Vanderbilt 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VAN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 523 | Total yards | 468 |
| 278 | Passing yards | 338 |
| 245 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 29 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 29/41 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 7-64 |
| 29:58 | Possession | 30:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:39 MIZ punt on 4th & 15 at VAN 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:13MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.51–28
- Q4 9:13MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.50–28
- Q4 9:22VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.44–28
- Q4 9:22VANVANDERBILT pass complete for a touchdown.44–27
- Q3 1:15MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.44–21
- Q3 1:15MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.43–21
- Q3 3:19VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.37–21
- Q3 3:19VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.37–20
- Q3 7:16MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.37–14
- Q3 7:16MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.36–14
- Q3 12:03VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.30–14
- Q3 12:03VANVANDERBILT pass complete for a touchdown.30–13
- Q2 1:38MIZMISSOURI 41 yard field goal GOOD.30–7
- Q2 8:15MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.27–7
- Q2 8:15MIZMISSOURI rush for a touchdown.26–7
- Q2 11:04VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.20–7
- Q2 11:04VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.20–6
- Q1 2:50MIZMISSOURI 29 yard field goal GOOD.20–0
- Q1 7:54MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.17–0
- Q1 7:54MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.16–0
- Q1 8:43MIZMISSOURI 44 yard field goal GOOD.10–0
- Q1 13:43MIZMISSOURI Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 13:43MIZMISSOURI pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1645, MIZ Elo 1629 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -3 (59% to win) — 4.0 points clear of VAN's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #90 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Missouri leads 10–5–1 · 56% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →