Georgia Southern vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats


GASOTeam statsFLA
- Q4 2:57GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.26–20
- Q4 5:41FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.20–20
- Q4 5:41FLAFLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.20–20
- Q4 12:02FLAFLORIDA 22 yard field goal GOOD.20–13
- Q3 0:32GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.20–10
- Q3 12:24GASOGA SOUTHERN Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q3 12:24GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.14–10
- Q2 2:01GASOGA SOUTHERN Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q2 2:01GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.7–10
- Q2 13:31FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.0–10
- Q2 13:31FLAFLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.0–10
- Q1 8:34FLAFLORIDA 27 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
How the model called it
- PassKevin Ellison 0/3, 0 YDS
- RushJerick McKinnon 9 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSkyler Mornhinweg 14/25, 122 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKelvin Taylor 22 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecSolomon Patton 4 REC, 69 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:30GASO +63%
Nardo Govan rush over right guard for no gain to the Fla 14, tackled by Damien Jacobs
- Q4 5:41FLA +50%
Skyler Mornhinweg deep pass complete to Solomon Patton for 46 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 4:34GASO +33%
Kevin Ellison rush over right end for 8 yards to the Fla 15, tackled by Darrin Kitchens for a 1ST down
- Q3 15:00GASO +23%
Kevin Ellison rush over right tackle for 3 yards to the Fla 1, tackled by Jabari Gorman and Darrin Kitchens
- Q4 12:02GASO +13%
William Banks rush over left tackle for no gain to the Fla 41, tackled by Marcus Maye
- Q4 2:57FLA +13%
Skyler Mornhinweg crossing pass complete to Ahmad Fulwood for 7 yards to the Fla 45, tackled by Tay Hicklin
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Florida?
Georgia Southern 26, Florida 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 429 | Total yards | 279 |
| 0 | Passing yards | 122 |
| 429 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 16 | First downs | 15 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 0/3 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 0.0 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 7.9 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-41 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 30:23 | Possession | 29:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:23 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:57GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.26–20
- Q4 5:41FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.20–20
- Q4 5:41FLAFLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.20–20
- Q4 12:02FLAFLORIDA 22 yard field goal GOOD.20–13
- Q3 0:32GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.20–10
- Q3 12:24GASOGA SOUTHERN Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q3 12:24GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.14–10
- Q2 2:01GASOGA SOUTHERN Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q2 2:01GASOGA SOUTHERN rush for a touchdown.7–10
- Q2 13:31FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.0–10
- Q2 13:31FLAFLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.0–10
- Q1 8:34FLAFLORIDA 27 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1678, GASO Elo 1462 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -11 (77% to win) — 16.5 points clear of GASO's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #3 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
































