UCLA vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsUSC
- Q4 3:50UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.35–14
- Q4 3:50UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.34–14
- Q3 3:18UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q3 3:18UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.27–14
- Q3 6:12USCUSC Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 6:12USCUSC pass complete for a touchdown.21–13
- Q3 9:50UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.21–7
- Q3 9:50UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.20–7
- Q2 6:55USCUSC Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 6:55USCUSC rush for a touchdown.14–6
- Q2 12:36UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q2 12:36UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 4:09UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 4:09UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassBrett Hundley 18/27, 208 YDS
- RushBrett Hundley 13 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- RecPaul Perkins 3 REC, 79 YDS
- PassCody Kessler 17/28, 174 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJavorius Allen 20 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMarqise Lee 6 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:09UCLA +17%
Myles Jack rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:50UCLA +16%
Brett Hundley rush for 12 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:18UCLA +16%
Brett Hundley rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:36UCLA +15%
Eddie Vanderdoes rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 6:12USC +14%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Xavier Grimble for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:55USC +14%
Javorius Allen rush for 11 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. USC?
UCLA 35, USC 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 314 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 174 |
| 188 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/27 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 29:16 | Possession | 30:07 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:30 USC punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:50UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.35–14
- Q4 3:50UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.34–14
- Q3 3:18UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q3 3:18UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.27–14
- Q3 6:12USCUSC Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q3 6:12USCUSC pass complete for a touchdown.21–13
- Q3 9:50UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.21–7
- Q3 9:50UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.20–7
- Q2 6:55USCUSC Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 6:55USCUSC rush for a touchdown.14–6
- Q2 12:36UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q2 12:36UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 4:09UCLAUCLA Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 4:09UCLAUCLA rush for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1752, UCLA Elo 1756 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #77 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →USC leads 54–34–7 · USC has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →