Marshall vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsRICE
- Q4 5:35MRSHMARSHALL Extra point GOOD.24–41
- Q4 5:35MRSHMARSHALL pass complete for a touchdown.23–41
- Q4 8:09RICERICE rush for a touchdown.17–41
- Q4 8:09RICERICE Extra point GOOD.17–41
- Q4 11:02MRSHMARSHALL Extra point GOOD.17–34
- Q4 11:02MRSHMARSHALL pass complete for a touchdown.16–34
- Q3 0:24RICERICE Extra point GOOD.10–34
- Q3 0:24RICERICE pass complete for a touchdown.10–33
- Q3 5:34RICERICE rush for a touchdown.10–27
- Q2 9:18MRSHMARSHALL Extra point GOOD.10–21
- Q2 9:18MRSHMARSHALL rush for a touchdown.9–21
- Q2 11:29RICERICE Extra point GOOD.3–21
- Q2 11:29RICERICE rush for a touchdown.3–20
- Q2 12:21MRSHMARSHALL 27 yard field goal GOOD.3–14
- Q1 8:05RICERICE Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q1 8:05RICERICE pass complete for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 10:15RICERICE Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 10:15RICERICE pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
- PassRakeem Cato 24/41, 265 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushEssray Taliaferro 17 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecHarold Hoskins 6 REC, 99 YDS
- PassTaylor McHargue 8/16, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCharles Ross 18 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Taylor 6 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:15RICE +16%
Luke Turner pass complete to Donte Moore for 35 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:05RICE +16%
Taylor McHargue pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 75 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:29RICE +12%
Charles Ross rush for 4 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:18MRSH +12%
Devon Johnson rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:34RICE +9%
Darik Dillard rush for 17 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 6:05RICE +8%
Luke Turner rush for 5 yards to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Rice?
Marshall 24, Rice 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 487 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 248 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/41 | Comp/Att | 10/18 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 13.3 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 9-81 |
| 27:40 | Possession | 32:20 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:57 MRSH punt on 4th & 1 at MRSH 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:35MRSHMARSHALL Extra point GOOD.24–41
- Q4 5:35MRSHMARSHALL pass complete for a touchdown.23–41
- Q4 8:09RICERICE rush for a touchdown.17–41
- Q4 8:09RICERICE Extra point GOOD.17–41
- Q4 11:02MRSHMARSHALL Extra point GOOD.17–34
- Q4 11:02MRSHMARSHALL pass complete for a touchdown.16–34
- Q3 0:24RICERICE Extra point GOOD.10–34
- Q3 0:24RICERICE pass complete for a touchdown.10–33
- Q3 5:34RICERICE rush for a touchdown.10–27
- Q2 9:18MRSHMARSHALL Extra point GOOD.10–21
- Q2 9:18MRSHMARSHALL rush for a touchdown.9–21
- Q2 11:29RICERICE Extra point GOOD.3–21
- Q2 11:29RICERICE rush for a touchdown.3–20
- Q2 12:21MRSHMARSHALL 27 yard field goal GOOD.3–14
- Q1 8:05RICERICE Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q1 8:05RICERICE pass complete for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 10:15RICERICE Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 10:15RICERICE pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1579, MRSH Elo 1745 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +4.2 (40% to win) — 3.8 points clear of RICE's market line of +8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #32 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Marshall leads 5–3 · 25% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →