Miami vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsDUKE
- Q4 1:04DUKEDUKE 32 yard field goal GOOD.30–48
- Q4 6:50DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.30–45
- Q4 6:50DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.30–44
- Q4 11:37DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.30–38
- Q4 11:37DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.30–37
- Q3 2:47DUKEDUKE 48 yard field goal GOOD.30–31
- Q3 5:04MIAMIAMI FL 31 yard field goal GOOD.30–28
- Q3 11:12MIAMIAMI FL Extra point GOOD.27–28
- Q3 11:12MIAMIAMI FL pass complete for a touchdown.26–28
- Q3 11:50DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.20–28
- Q3 11:50DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.20–27
- Q2 2:01DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.20–21
- Q2 2:01DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.20–20
- Q2 4:42MIAMIAMI FL 32 yard field goal GOOD.20–14
- Q2 9:02DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.17–14
- Q2 9:02DUKEDUKE pass complete for a touchdown.17–13
- Q1 2:01MIAMIAMI FL Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q1 2:01MIAMIAMI FL pass complete for a touchdown.16–7
- Q1 6:22DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q1 6:22DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.10–6
- Q1 9:33MIAMIAMI FL Extra point GOOD.10–0
- Q1 9:33MIAMIAMI FL punt return for a touchdown.9–0
- Q1 10:27MIAMIAMI FL 32 yard field goal GOOD.3–0
How the model called it
- PassStephen Morris 30/49, 379 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDallas Crawford 19 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecHerb Waters 9 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAnthony Boone 11/15, 104 YDS
- RushJosh Snead 9 CAR, 138 YDS
- RecJamison Crowder 6 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:37DUKE +26%
Brandon Connette rush for 4 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:12MIA +22%
Stephen Morris pass complete to Herb Waters for 50 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:50DUKE +21%
Brandon Connette rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 2:01DUKE +19%
Brandon Connette rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:02DUKE +16%
Brandon Connette pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:01MIA +15%
Stephen Morris pass complete to Herb Waters for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Duke?
Miami 30, Duke 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 565 | Total yards | 543 |
| 379 | Passing yards | 185 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 358 |
| 28 | First downs | 27 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 30/49 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 31:19 | Possession | 27:47 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:12 DUKE punt on 4th & 2 at DUKE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:04DUKEDUKE 32 yard field goal GOOD.30–48
- Q4 6:50DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.30–45
- Q4 6:50DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.30–44
- Q4 11:37DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.30–38
- Q4 11:37DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.30–37
- Q3 2:47DUKEDUKE 48 yard field goal GOOD.30–31
- Q3 5:04MIAMIAMI FL 31 yard field goal GOOD.30–28
- Q3 11:12MIAMIAMI FL Extra point GOOD.27–28
- Q3 11:12MIAMIAMI FL pass complete for a touchdown.26–28
- Q3 11:50DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.20–28
- Q3 11:50DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.20–27
- Q2 2:01DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.20–21
- Q2 2:01DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.20–20
- Q2 4:42MIAMIAMI FL 32 yard field goal GOOD.20–14
- Q2 9:02DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.17–14
- Q2 9:02DUKEDUKE pass complete for a touchdown.17–13
- Q1 2:01MIAMIAMI FL Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q1 2:01MIAMIAMI FL pass complete for a touchdown.16–7
- Q1 6:22DUKEDUKE Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q1 6:22DUKEDUKE rush for a touchdown.10–6
- Q1 9:33MIAMIAMI FL Extra point GOOD.10–0
- Q1 9:33MIAMIAMI FL punt return for a touchdown.9–0
- Q1 10:27MIAMIAMI FL 32 yard field goal GOOD.3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1534, MIA Elo 1626 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE +1.3 (48% to win) — 2.2 points clear of DUKE's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #88 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Miami leads 16–5 · 19% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →