Fordham vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Fordham2-0

▸0030

Temple0-2

0029

Final

Lincoln Financial Field

	1	2	3	4	T
FORD	3	10	7	10	30
TEM	0	7	7	15	29

FORDTeam statsTEM

520Total yards385

320Pass140

200Rush245

26First downs27

6-163rd down8-13

0Turnovers2

34:43Possession24:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:04FORDFORDHAM Extra point GOOD.30–29
• Q4 0:04FORDFORDHAM pass complete for a touchdown.29–29
• Q4 4:34TEMTEMPLE2-point conversion rush GOOD.23–29
• Q4 4:34TEMTEMPLE pass complete for a touchdown.23–27
• Q4 7:03FORDFORDHAM 24 yard field goal GOOD.23–21
• Q4 12:41TEMTEMPLE Extra point GOOD.20–21
• Q4 12:41TEMTEMPLE rush for a touchdown.20–20
• Q3 3:10TEMTEMPLE Extra point GOOD.20–14
• Q3 3:10TEMTEMPLE rush for a touchdown.20–14
• Q3 6:21FORDFORDHAM Extra point GOOD.20–7
• Q3 6:21FORDFORDHAM pass complete for a touchdown.20–7
• Q2 0:00FORDFORDHAM 47 yard field goal GOOD.13–7
• Q2 9:05FORDFORDHAM Extra point GOOD.10–7
• Q2 9:05FORDFORDHAM rush for a touchdown.10–7
• Q2 10:27TEMTEMPLE Extra point GOOD.3–7
• Q2 10:27TEMTEMPLE rush for a touchdown.3–7
• Q1 0:49FORDFORDHAM 44 yard field goal GOOD.3–0

How the model called it

Market line

TEM −24

Against the number

FORD covered

line TEM −24

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FORD aheadTEM ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FORD ahead, below = TEM ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TEM −24

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

FORD 30 – 29 TEM

consensus, liveTEM −24

Leaders

Fordham

• PassMike Nebrich 23/36, 320 YDS, 2 TD
• RushCarlton Koonce 27 CAR, 168 YDS, 1 TD
• RecSam Ajala 7 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD

Temple

• PassConnor Reilly 7/8, 69 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKenneth Harper 16 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
• RecChris Coyer 5 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

21.9sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

154

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FORD up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

77%

FORD went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WOklahoma State vs Central Arkansas27-13WGeorgia Southern vs UAB49-35WMissouri vs Middle Tennessee23-19WUC Davis vs Southern Utah23-21WTroy vs Western Kentucky27-24

Fourth downs

13 calls

FORD gave up 1.6 points to the model on fourth down.FORD 5/8 · TEM 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Fordham vs. Temple?

Fordham 30, Temple 29.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked TEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

FORD

TEM

46%

Success rate

62%

0.26

EPA / pass

0.05

0.02

EPA / rush

0.25

46%

Early-down success

60%

53%

Pass success

56%

40%

Rush success

65%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

47%

Pass rate

37%

5.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.6

FORD

5.3 yards to go on 3rd down

81 scrimmage snaps

TEM

4.6 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

FORD		TEM
520	Total yards	385
320	Passing yards	140
200	Rushing yards	245
26	First downs	27
6-16	3rd down	8-13
3-5	4th down	0-1
23/36	Comp/Att	14/26
8.9	Yards per pass	5.4
4.4	Yards per rush	5.0
0	Turnovers	2
8-70	Penalties	5-34
34:43	Possession	24:46

Fourth downs

13 calls

FORD

5/8 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

TEM

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 13:43 FORD punt on 4th & 3 at TEM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

FORD 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TEM 4/11 scoring drives

FORDDOWNS10 pl, 78 yds· own 18Q1

TEMFUM14 pl, 51 yds· own 4Q1

FORDPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 45Q1

TEMINT6 pl, 30 yds· own 7Q1

FORDFG GOOD4 pl, -2 yds· opp 25Q1

TEMPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 40Q1

FORDDOWNS8 pl, 28 yds· own 13Q1

TEMTD8 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q2

FORDTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

TEMFG MISS12 pl, 55 yds· own 39Q2

FORDFG GOOD14 pl, 50 yds· own 20Q2

TEMPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 27Q3

FORDPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 26Q3

TEMPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 17Q3

FORDTD6 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3

TEMTD10 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q3

FORDPUNT8 pl, 29 yds· own 15Q3

TEMTD8 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q4

FORDFG GOOD9 pl, 70 yds· own 22Q4

TEMTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ4

FORDTD13 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4

TEMEND1 pl, -13 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:04FORDFORDHAM Extra point GOOD.30–29
• Q4 0:04FORDFORDHAM pass complete for a touchdown.29–29
• Q4 4:34TEMTEMPLE2-point conversion rush GOOD.23–29
• Q4 4:34TEMTEMPLE pass complete for a touchdown.23–27
• Q4 7:03FORDFORDHAM 24 yard field goal GOOD.23–21
• Q4 12:41TEMTEMPLE Extra point GOOD.20–21
• Q4 12:41TEMTEMPLE rush for a touchdown.20–20
• Q3 3:10TEMTEMPLE Extra point GOOD.20–14
• Q3 3:10TEMTEMPLE rush for a touchdown.20–14
• Q3 6:21FORDFORDHAM Extra point GOOD.20–7
• Q3 6:21FORDFORDHAM pass complete for a touchdown.20–7
• Q2 0:00FORDFORDHAM 47 yard field goal GOOD.13–7
• Q2 9:05FORDFORDHAM Extra point GOOD.10–7
• Q2 9:05FORDFORDHAM rush for a touchdown.10–7
• Q2 10:27TEMTEMPLE Extra point GOOD.3–7
• Q2 10:27TEMTEMPLE rush for a touchdown.3–7
• Q1 0:49FORDFORDHAM 44 yard field goal GOOD.3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Fordham were +24 — a 7% shot

#44 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #5 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.

The 2013 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →