Towson vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Towson

▸0033

UConn

0018

Final

Pratt & Whitney Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TOWS	7	6	6	14	33
CONN	7	3	0	8	18

TOWSTeam statsCONN

393Total yards290

192Pass206

201Rush84

17First downs15

7-163rd down4-13

1Turnovers2

36:23Possession35:41

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:16TOWSTOWSON Extra point GOOD.33–18
• Q4 0:16TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.32–18
• Q4 3:29CONNCONNECTICUT2-point conversion pass GOOD.26–18
• Q4 3:29CONNCONNECTICUT pass complete for a touchdown.26–16
• Q4 5:14TOWSTOWSON Extra point GOOD.26–10
• Q4 5:14TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.26–10
• Q3 5:09TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.19–10
• Q2 1:48CONNCONNECTICUT 22 yard field goal GOOD.13–10
• Q2 7:04TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.13–7
• Q1 2:51TOWSTOWSON Extra point GOOD.7–7
• Q1 2:51TOWSTOWSON pass complete for a touchdown.6–7
• Q1 4:55CONNCONNECTICUT Extra point GOOD.0–7
• Q1 4:55CONNCONNECTICUT pass complete for a touchdown.0–6

How the model called it

Market line

CONN −20

Against the number

TOWS covered

line CONN −20

What the numbers say

• TOWS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TOWS aheadCONN ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TOWS ahead, below = CONN ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CONN −20

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

TOWS 33 – 18 CONN

consensus, liveCONN −20

Leaders

Towson

• PassPeter Athens 13/20, 192 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushTerrance West 36 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
• RecLeon Kinnard 4 REC, 61 YDS

UConn

• PassChandler Whitmer 16/28, 206 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushLyle McCombs 17 CAR, 76 YDS
• RecGeremy Davis 5 REC, 100 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

121

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TOWS up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,696 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

87%

TOWS went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

LTexas Tech vs Oregon30-38WPrinceton vs San Diego23-12WGeorgia State vs Charlotte41-25WJames Madison vs Troy16-14WChattanooga vs Mercer22-10

Fourth downs

18 calls

CONN gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.TOWS 6/7 · CONN 5/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Towson vs. UConn?

Towson 33, UConn 18.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TOWS

CONN

37%

Success rate

41%

0.55

EPA / pass

0.23

-0.18

EPA / rush

0.01

34%

Early-down success

41%

52%

Pass success

45%

31%

Rush success

36%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

30%

Pass rate

57%

5.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

TOWS

5.4 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

CONN

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TOWS		CONN
393	Total yards	290
192	Passing yards	206
201	Rushing yards	84
17	First downs	15
7-16	3rd down	4-13
2-3	4th down	1-2
13/20	Comp/Att	16/28
9.6	Yards per pass	7.4
4.0	Yards per rush	3.0
1	Turnovers	2
7-70	Penalties	5-35
36:23	Possession	35:41

Fourth downs

18 calls

TOWS

6/7 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

CONN

5/8 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 11:28 CONN punt on 4th & 1 at CONN 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TOWS 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CONN 3/13 scoring drives

CONNPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

TOWSINT8 pl, 38 yds· own 27Q1

CONNTD9 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q1

TOWSTD4 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

CONNPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 16Q1

TOWSPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 37Q1

CONNPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 16Q2

TOWSDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 42Q2

CONNINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 37Q2

TOWSTD2 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q2

CONNFG GOOD11 pl, 71 yds· own 24Q2

TOWSPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 24Q2

CONNEND2 pl, -5 yds· opp 39Q2

TOWSPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

CONNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 37Q3

TOWSTD13 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q3

CONNPUNT4 pl, 1 yds· own 24Q3

TOWSPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 30Q3

CONNFUM6 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q3

TOWSPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q4

CONNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 32Q4

TOWSTD10 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4

CONNTD7 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4

TOWSFUM3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q4

TOWSTD6 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q4

CONNEND1 pl, 7 yds· own 31Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:16TOWSTOWSON Extra point GOOD.33–18
• Q4 0:16TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.32–18
• Q4 3:29CONNCONNECTICUT2-point conversion pass GOOD.26–18
• Q4 3:29CONNCONNECTICUT pass complete for a touchdown.26–16
• Q4 5:14TOWSTOWSON Extra point GOOD.26–10
• Q4 5:14TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.26–10
• Q3 5:09TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.19–10
• Q2 1:48CONNCONNECTICUT 22 yard field goal GOOD.13–10
• Q2 7:04TOWSTOWSON rush for a touchdown.13–7
• Q1 2:51TOWSTOWSON Extra point GOOD.7–7
• Q1 2:51TOWSTOWSON pass complete for a touchdown.6–7
• Q1 4:55CONNCONNECTICUT Extra point GOOD.0–7
• Q1 4:55CONNCONNECTICUT pass complete for a touchdown.0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Towson were +20 — a 11% shot

#12 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #9 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.

The 2013 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →