Nicholls vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Nicholls0-1

▸0027

Western Michigan0-1

0023

Final

Waldo Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NICH	14	7	0	6	27
WMU	0	9	14	0	23

NICHTeam statsWMU

447Total yards485

225Pass254

222Rush231

18First downs30

5-113rd down6-15

3Turnovers2

27:54Possession32:06

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:44NICHNICHOLLS ST 28 yard field goal GOOD.27–23
• Q4 11:19NICHNICHOLLS ST 29 yard field goal GOOD.24–23
• Q3 3:13WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN Extra point GOOD.21–23
• Q3 3:13WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN rush for a touchdown.21–23
• Q3 12:51WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN Extra point GOOD.21–16
• Q3 12:51WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN rush for a touchdown.21–15
• Q2 5:07NICHNICHOLLS ST Extra point GOOD.21–9
• Q2 5:07NICHNICHOLLS ST rush for a touchdown.20–9
• Q2 6:53WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN rush for a touchdown.14–9
• Q2 13:41WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN 42 yard field goal GOOD.14–3
• Q1 1:31NICHNICHOLLS ST Extra point GOOD.14–0
• Q1 1:31NICHNICHOLLS ST rush for a touchdown.13–0
• Q1 12:48NICHNICHOLLS ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
• Q1 12:48NICHNICHOLLS ST rush for a touchdown.6–0

How the model called it

Market line

WMU −27

Against the number

NICH covered

line WMU −27

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NICH aheadWMU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = NICH ahead, below = WMU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

WMU −27

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

NICH 27 – 23 WMU

consensus, liveWMU −27

Leaders

Nicholls

• PassKalen Henderson 8/11, 159 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKalen Henderson 6 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
• RecErik Buchanan 3 REC, 72 YDS

Western Michigan

• PassTyler Van Tubbergen 24/43, 254 YDS, 2 INT
• RushDareyon Chance 21 CAR, 123 YDS
• RecCorey Davis 8 REC, 116 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

148

Points / snap

0.34

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NICH up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

53%

NICH went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LDavidson vs VMI7-12WNorth Alabama vs Chattanooga41-27WAlabama State vs Southern28-20WUCLA vs Coastal Carolina27-13LBoise State vs UCF22-24

Fourth downs

13 calls

WMU gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.NICH 4/4 · WMU 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. Western Michigan?

Nicholls 27, Western Michigan 23.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NICH

WMU

46%

Success rate

49%

0.51

EPA / pass

0.02

0.14

EPA / rush

0.06

46%

Early-down success

51%

47%

Pass success

44%

45%

Rush success

56%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

13%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

32%

Pass rate

52%

6.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.2

NICH

6.4 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

WMU

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

89 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NICH		WMU
447	Total yards	485
225	Passing yards	254
222	Rushing yards	231
18	First downs	30
5-11	3rd down	6-15
0-0	4th down	0-2
10/18	Comp/Att	24/43
12.5	Yards per pass	5.9
5.6	Yards per rush	5.3
3	Turnovers	2
9-70	Penalties	8-90
27:54	Possession	32:06

Fourth downs

13 calls

NICH

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

WMU

4/7 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 11:19 WMU punt on 4th & 5 at NICH 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NICH 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 4/13 scoring drives

NICHTD5 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1

WMUPUNT6 pl, 3 yds· own 15Q1

NICHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 48Q1

WMUPUNT10 pl, 43 yds· own 12Q1

NICHTD6 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q1

WMUFG GOOD8 pl, 23 yds· opp 48Q1

NICHFUM5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

WMUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q2

NICHINT2 pl, 21 yds· own 21Q2

WMUTD8 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q2

WMUINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 48Q2

NICHTD2 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

WMUDOWNS10 pl, 54 yds· own 23Q2

NICHEND5 pl, 21 yds· own 23Q2

WMUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 15Q3

WMUDOWNS12 pl, 61 yds· own 37Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 2Q3

WMUTD4 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q3

NICHFG GOOD13 pl, 61 yds· own 27Q3

WMUPUNT6 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q4

NICHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 14Q4

WMUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 49Q4

NICHFG GOOD9 pl, 69 yds· own 20Q4

WMUINT8 pl, 64 yds· own 12Q4

NICHEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:44NICHNICHOLLS ST 28 yard field goal GOOD.27–23
• Q4 11:19NICHNICHOLLS ST 29 yard field goal GOOD.24–23
• Q3 3:13WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN Extra point GOOD.21–23
• Q3 3:13WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN rush for a touchdown.21–23
• Q3 12:51WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN Extra point GOOD.21–16
• Q3 12:51WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN rush for a touchdown.21–15
• Q2 5:07NICHNICHOLLS ST Extra point GOOD.21–9
• Q2 5:07NICHNICHOLLS ST rush for a touchdown.20–9
• Q2 6:53WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN rush for a touchdown.14–9
• Q2 13:41WMUWESTRN MICHIGAN 42 yard field goal GOOD.14–3
• Q1 1:31NICHNICHOLLS ST Extra point GOOD.14–0
• Q1 1:31NICHNICHOLLS ST rush for a touchdown.13–0
• Q1 12:48NICHNICHOLLS ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
• Q1 12:48NICHNICHOLLS ST rush for a touchdown.6–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Nicholls were +27 — a 5% shot

#19 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #4 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.

The 2013 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →