Colorado vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsUCF
- Q4 5:05COLOCam'Ron Silmon-Craig 95 Yd Fumble Return (Alejandro Mata Kick)48–21
- Q3 1:32COLOLaJohntay Wester 10 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)41–21
- Q3 3:58UCFXavier Townsend 15 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Colton Boomer Kick)34–21
- Q3 9:11COLOMicah Welch 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)34–14
- Q2 0:00COLOAlejandro Mata 46 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 0:42COLOAlejandro Mata 36 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 8:41UCFKJ Jefferson 7 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:21COLODallan Hayden 14 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:10COLOWill Sheppard 47 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:38UCFRJ Harvey 75 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:49COLOTravis Hunter 23 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- COLO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.0 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassShedeur Sanders 28/35, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Augustave 4 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecWill Sheppard 4 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKJ Jefferson 20/35, 284 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushRJ Harvey 16 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecRJ Harvey 4 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 816 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:21COLO +22%
Dallan Hayden run for 14 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 8:41UCF +21%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q1 3:38UCF +18%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to RJ Harvey for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q1 0:10COLO +18%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 47 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q1 3:49COLO +17%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 23 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q3 9:11COLO +15%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. UCF?
Colorado 48, UCF 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total yards | 461 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 284 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 26 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 28/35 | Comp/Att | 20/35 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-75 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 29:57 | Possession | 30:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:42 COLO field goal on 4th & 1 at UCF 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:05COLOCam'Ron Silmon-Craig 95 Yd Fumble Return (Alejandro Mata Kick)48–21
- Q3 1:32COLOLaJohntay Wester 10 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)41–21
- Q3 3:58UCFXavier Townsend 15 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Colton Boomer Kick)34–21
- Q3 9:11COLOMicah Welch 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)34–14
- Q2 0:00COLOAlejandro Mata 46 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 0:42COLOAlejandro Mata 36 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 8:41UCFKJ Jefferson 7 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:21COLODallan Hayden 14 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:10COLOWill Sheppard 47 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:38UCFRJ Harvey 75 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:49COLOTravis Hunter 23 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1642, COLO Elo 1368 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -13.4 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #21 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| COLO | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#22) | CORE overall | +11.2 (#32) |
| +3 / -12 | offense / defense | +9 / -2 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.45 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +15 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →