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Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Florida Atlantic over Tulsa
63–16 · on the road · 2024-11-30
+1+48.048%
2Utah State over Hawai'i
55–10 · at home · 2024-11-16
+2.5+47.544%
3South Alabama over App State
48–14 · on the road · 2024-09-19
+7.5+41.532%
4Charlotte over East Carolina
55–24 · at home · 2024-10-05
+9.5+40.528%
5Florida International over Central Michigan
52–16 · neutral site · 2024-09-07
+3.5+39.541%
6Colorado over UCF
48–21 · on the road · 2024-09-28
+12.5+39.522%
7Northwestern over Maryland
37–10 · on the road · 2024-10-12
+11+38.025%
8Ohio over Miami (OH)
38–3 · neutral site · 2024-12-07
+2.5+37.544%
9UL Monroe over UAB
32–6 · at home · 2024-09-07
+11+37.025%
10BYU over #13Kansas State
38–9 · at home · 2024-09-22
+7.5+36.532%
11South Florida over Charlotte
59–24 · on the road · 2024-11-16
+1.5+36.546%
12Wisconsin over Rutgers
42–7 · on the road · 2024-10-12
+1.2+36.247%
13Oklahoma over #7Alabama
24–3 · at home · 2024-11-24
+14+35.019%
14South Carolina over Kentucky
31–6 · on the road · 2024-09-07
+9.5+34.528%
15Toledo over Mississippi State
41–17 · on the road · 2024-09-14
+10.5+34.526%
16UAB over Rice
40–14 · at home · 2024-11-23
+7+33.033%
17Marshall over Louisiana
31–3 · on the road · 2024-12-08
+5+33.038%
18Coastal Carolina over Jacksonville State
55–27 · on the road · 2024-08-30
+3.5+31.541%
19Boston College over #10Florida State
28–13 · on the road · 2024-09-02
+16.5+31.515%
20James Madison over North Carolina
70–50 · on the road · 2024-09-21
+11+31.025%
21Georgia State over Texas State
52–44 · on the road · 2024-11-24
+23+31.08%
22Florida over Kentucky
48–20 · at home · 2024-10-19
+2.5+30.544%
23North Carolina over Virginia
41–14 · on the road · 2024-10-26
+3.5+30.541%
24Air Force over Oregon State
28–0 · at home · 2024-11-16
+2.5+30.544%
25Northern Illinois over #5Notre Dame
16–14 · on the road · 2024-09-07
+28+30.04%
26Kennesaw State over Liberty
27–24 · at home · 2024-10-23
+27+30.05%
27Sam Houston over Rice
34–14 · on the road · 2024-08-31
+9.5+29.528%
28Colorado over Arizona
34–7 · on the road · 2024-10-19
+2.5+29.544%
29Baylor over Kansas
45–17 · at home · 2024-11-30
+1.5+29.546%
30Old Dominion over Georgia Southern
47–19 · at home · 2024-10-24
+1+29.048%
31Baylor over Texas Tech
59–35 · on the road · 2024-10-19
+4.5+28.539%
32Rutgers over Michigan State
41–14 · on the road · 2024-11-30
+1.5+28.546%
33Vanderbilt over #1Alabama
40–35 · at home · 2024-10-05
+23+28.08%
34Houston over TCU
30–19 · on the road · 2024-10-04
+16.5+27.515%
35#12Arizona State over #16Iowa State
45–19 · neutral site · 2024-12-07
+1.5+27.546%
36South Carolina over #10Texas A&M
44–20 · at home · 2024-11-02
+3+27.043%
37West Virginia over Oklahoma State
38–14 · on the road · 2024-10-05
+2.5+26.544%
38Rice over Navy
24–10 · at home · 2024-11-02
+12.5+26.522%
39#24Army over Tulane
35–14 · at home · 2024-12-07
+5+26.038%
40SMU over TCU
66–42 · at home · 2024-09-21
+1.5+25.546%
41Buffalo over Toledo
30–15 · at home · 2024-10-12
+10.5+25.526%
42#13BYU over #25Colorado
36–14 · neutral site · 2024-12-29
+3+25.043%
43Navy over #19Army
31–13 · neutral site · 2024-12-14
+6.5+24.534%
44Stanford over #22Louisville
38–35 · at home · 2024-11-16
+21+24.09%
45Utah over UCF
28–14 · on the road · 2024-11-30
+10+24.027%
46St. Francis (PA) over Kent State
23–17 · on the road · 2024-09-07
+17.5+23.514%
47Washington State over Texas Tech
37–16 · at home · 2024-09-08
+2.5+23.544%
48Georgia Southern over James Madison
28–14 · at home · 2024-10-19
+9.5+23.528%
49Louisville over #11Clemson
33–21 · on the road · 2024-11-02
+11+23.025%
50Michigan over #2Ohio State
13–10 · on the road · 2024-11-30
+20+23.011%
51Temple over Utah State
45–29 · at home · 2024-09-21
+6.5+22.534%
52Memphis over #18Tulane
34–24 · on the road · 2024-11-29
+12.5+22.522%
53#9Michigan over #5Alabama
19–13 · neutral site · 2024-12-31
+16.5+22.515%
54#23UNLV over Houston
27–7 · on the road · 2024-08-31
+2.2+22.244%
55Boston College over North Carolina
41–21 · at home · 2024-11-23
+2+22.045%
56Georgia Southern over Coastal Carolina
26–6 · on the road · 2024-11-23
+2+22.045%
57Coastal Carolina over Georgia State
48–27 · on the road · 2024-11-30
+0.5+21.549%
58App State over James Madison
34–20 · at home · 2024-11-23
+7+21.033%
59Vanderbilt over Virginia Tech
34–27 · at home · 2024-08-31
+13.5+20.520%
60Old Dominion over Texas State
24–14 · at home · 2024-10-19
+10.5+20.526%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.