Northwestern vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsMD
- Q4 4:30NUJake Arthurs 9 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)37–10
- Q4 6:23NULuke Akers 38 Yd Field Goal 30–10
- Q4 8:55NULuke Akers 38 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q4 13:17NUAidan Hubbard 2 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Akers Kick)24–10
- Q4 14:57MDJack Howes 31 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 3:22MDBilly Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:50NULuke Akers 43 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:08NUCam Porter 3 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:03NUJack Lausch 9 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJack Lausch 10/18, 203 YDS
- RushCaleb Komolafe 7 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecBryce Kirtz 3 REC, 123 YDS
- PassBilly Edwards Jr. 28/51, 296 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRoman Hemby 14 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecKaden Prather 8 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:17NU +24%
Aidan Hubbard 2 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Akers Kick)
- Q2 12:08NU +20%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK)
- Q1 8:03NU +18%
Jack Lausch run for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Akers KICK)
- Q2 3:22MD +16%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q4 14:57MD +11%
Jack Howes 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 13:27MD +10%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Maryland?
Northwestern 37, Maryland 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 283 | Total yards | 355 |
| 203 | Passing yards | 296 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 59 |
| 10 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 10/18 | Comp/Att | 28/52 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-54 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 26:15 | Possession | 33:45 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:13 MD go for it on 4th & 6 at NU 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:30NUJake Arthurs 9 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)37–10
- Q4 6:23NULuke Akers 38 Yd Field Goal 30–10
- Q4 8:55NULuke Akers 38 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q4 13:17NUAidan Hubbard 2 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Akers Kick)24–10
- Q4 14:57MDJack Howes 31 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 3:22MDBilly Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:50NULuke Akers 43 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:08NUCam Porter 3 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:03NUJack Lausch 9 Yd Run (Luke Akers Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1642, NU Elo 1473 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -9.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #33 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| NU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#108) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#78) |
| -13 / -1 | offense / defense | -4 / -0 |
| 1.16 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.51 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →