#17Bryce Kirtz

WR·Northwestern·2024

Bryce Kirtz is a Versatile WR for Northwestern. Bryce's 2024 season produced 38.5 total EPA across 41 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryce Kirtz's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

39 Receptions598 Rec yards0 Rec TD15.3 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Punt returns36 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume20
Explosiveness56
Consistency71
Pass-Down49

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.97 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.89 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Maryland (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMiami (OH)	W13-6	1.3	6	91	15.2	33	1.46
2	vsDuke	L20-26	5.6	2	29	14.5	25	0.77
3	vsEastern Illinois	W31-7	—	3	18	6.0	8	-0.30
4	@Washington	L5-24	3.1	1	2	2.0	2	-0.44
6	vsIndiana	L24-41	20.1	10	128	12.8	47	0.83
7	@Maryland	W37-10	-3.9	3	123	41.0	55	2.89
8	vsWisconsin	L3-23	3.0	2	23	11.5	15	0.73
12	vsOhio State	L7-31	31.2	7	92	13.1	21	1.33
13	@Michigan	L6-50	10.6	3	67	22.3	39	0.46
14	vsIllinois	L28-38	9.6	2	25	12.5	17	1.77

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.0%

Passing plays

12.8%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

6.9%

Passing downs

7.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.94
Passing downs: 0.94
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.94 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).