North Carolina vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsBC
- Q4 0:09UNCDavion Gause 10 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)21–41
- Q4 2:09UNCDavion Gause 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)14–41
- Q4 5:51BCKye Robichaux 8 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)7–41
- Q4 12:38BCRyan Turner 78 Yd Interception Return (Liam Connor Kick)7–34
- Q3 11:20BCLiam Connor 27 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 0:40BCReed Harris 18 Yd pass from Grayson James (Liam Connor Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:51UNCChris Culliver 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Noah Burnette Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:05BCJohnathan Montague Jr. 24 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:41BCGrayson James 3 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:45BCLiam Connor 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
- Q1 8:45BCLiam Connor 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.1 vs 3rd & 7.8
- UNC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassJacolby Criswell 16/30, 176 YDS, 3 INT
- RushOmarion Hampton 11 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecJohn Copenhaver 4 REC, 64 YDS
- PassGrayson James 18/27, 192 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKye Robichaux 23 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLewis Bond 9 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 816 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:41BC +20%
Grayson James run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
- Q2 0:40BC +14%
Grayson James pass complete to Reed Harris for 18 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
- Q3 11:20BC +6%
Liam Connor 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 0:00BC +6%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 35
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Boston College?
North Carolina 21, Boston College 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 212 | Total yards | 420 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 192 |
| 36 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 13 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 16/30 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 4-54 |
| 22:12 | Possession | 37:48 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:54 BC go for it on 4th & 9 at UNC 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:09UNCDavion Gause 10 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)21–41
- Q4 2:09UNCDavion Gause 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)14–41
- Q4 5:51BCKye Robichaux 8 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)7–41
- Q4 12:38BCRyan Turner 78 Yd Interception Return (Liam Connor Kick)7–34
- Q3 11:20BCLiam Connor 27 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 0:40BCReed Harris 18 Yd pass from Grayson James (Liam Connor Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:51UNCChris Culliver 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Noah Burnette Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:05BCJohnathan Montague Jr. 24 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:41BCGrayson James 3 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:45BCLiam Connor 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
- Q1 8:45BCLiam Connor 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1441, UNC Elo 1608 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +4.3 (40% to win) — 2.3 points clear of UNC's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #108 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →North Carolina leads 6–3 · 22% have been one-possession games
| UNC | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 (#84) | CORE overall | -1.2 (#74) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | -0 / +1 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.24 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →